After a 4-1 showing last weekend, we attack Gameweek 8 with four plays on the card.
We've got two goal-heavy spots, my weekly Arsenal special, and a fatigue fade. Let's get into it.
My Premier League best bets are below.
Premier League Best Bets
The club logos in the table below represent each match that our soccer betting staff is targeting from today's games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Match | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 A.M. | |
  | 10:00 A.M. | |
  | 12:30 P.M. | |
  | 12:30 P.M. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our soccer Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Manchester City vs. Aston Villa
City are perfect in the league, but if you look at all competitions, this team is leaking goals. They've conceded in each of their last four games: 5-3 over Sunderland, 2-4 to PSG, 3-2 over Ipswich and 5-1 over AEK Athens. That's 10 goals allowed in four games. All of their last five have gone over 2.5, and both teams scored in four of them.
Add the legs. This is City's third game in eight days, and Enzo Maresca is already rotating. Haaland didn't even play against AEK.
Then there's Villa, who have won 4 of their last six league meetings with City. They're unbeaten in all competitions since September 12 and just put six past Fenerbahce in the Champions League.
Villa will score at Villa Park. City will score because of their quality. Back the goals.
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120)
Arsenal vs. Everton
If you've been following along, you know this one is basically an auto bet. Arsenal against lesser competition wins 1-0, 2-0, 2-1. It rarely gets past four.
The defending champions are 2nd on 18 points, three back of City, and they've won each of their last four at home. Everton come in 8th on 10 points. Arsenal won both meetings last season by a combined 3-0, and they're 7-2-1 across the last 10 meetings.
Yes, -145 is a little juicier than I'd like. If you want plus money, Arsenal moneyline and under 3.5 is out there. I'm taking the safer route. Arsenal win, under 4.5.
Pick: Arsenal Moneyline & Under 4.5 Goals (-145)
Chelsea vs. Tottenham
Getting plus money on this one is a gift. Chelsea sit 4th on 13 points through seven games, and Spurs are back in 16th on six points. The history at Stamford Bridge is lopsided too. Chelsea are unbeaten in 11 straight home games against Spurs. Tottenham have won just once in 41 trips there going back to 1990. Yes, 1990.
Now the goals. Chelsea have conceded in 11 consecutive home matches. Through seven games they've put up an xG over 11 and given up a xG north of 12, which tells you everything about how wide open their games are. Spurs finally got their first win of the season last weekend, 3-1 over Coventry, and both teams have scored in each of Tottenham's last four games.
I was tempted by both teams to score and over 2.5, but I don't want to get burned by a 3-0 Chelsea blowout. Chelsea win, three goals in the match, +115. That's the play.
Pick: Chelsea Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (+115)
Leeds United vs. Sunderland
This is a fatigue spot, plain and simple. Leeds haven't played in a week. Sunderland just went all the way to Poland in midweek and battled for a 1-1 draw. They don't have the squad depth of the clubs that are used to European competition, and that trip takes something out of you.
The table backs it up. Sunderland are dead last with four points and have lost two of their last three at home. Leeds sit 7th on 10 points, came back to draw Manchester United 1-1 last weekend thanks to a Dominic Calvert-Lewin equalizer, and won the last meeting between these two 1-0.
Leeds are fresher, better and more dangerous going forward. If it ends in a draw, you get your money back. Back Leeds.
