Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Arsenal vs. Newcastle 

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Previews: Our 4 Best Bets, Featuring Arsenal vs. Newcastle  article feature image

Raymond Smit/NESImages/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Gabriel Jesus of Arsenal FC.

We're back for more midweek action in the Premier League, as the festive fixtures continue.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham's Model Projections

Dabbundo's Model Projections

Brentford vs. Liverpool 

Brentford Odds+450
Liverpool Odds-182
Over/Under2.5 (-175 / +137)
Day | TimeMonday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Liverpool has had major defensive flaws this season in two key areas: set pieces and transition defending. The Reds have conceded 11.7 xGA in seven away league matches, which is in the bottom half of the league. Brentford is well designed to exploit these exact weaknesses.

The Bees have been one of the best home teams in the Premier League since they joined the league last season. Brentford is second in attacking set piece efficiency and is fifth in creating big scoring chances.

The Bees aren’t going to hold a ton of possession or take a ton of shots. But they’ll be well organized defensively and spring counters on this declining Liverpool counterpress. The Reds are pressing with less intensity and keeping a lower defensive line this season than the dominant teams of the past.

The main strength of the Bees defensively is preventing big scoring chances and defending within the penalty area. Even if Liverpool is able to tilt the field and control the flow, Brentford will get multiple looks in transition in behind the full backs.

The Liverpool defense has had major issues, especially from stopping crosses into the penalty area. Brentford is a team that can absolutely exploit this on Monday at home.

Brentford is a mid-table team with a roughly even expected goal differential and Liverpool hasn’t played well enough to warrant this inflated price on the road.

Pick: Brentford +1 (-110) and Brentford 1H team total o0.5 (+150)

Arsenal vs. Newcastle

Arsenal Odds-125
Newcastle Odds+333
Over/Under2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | TimeTuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: This price is too short on Arsenal.

Arsenal at home this season is a perfect 7-0-0 with a +11.6 xGD and has only conceded 5.9 expected goals in those seven matches. Newcastle’s success this season has mainly been at St. James Park where they are a +11.2 xGD away from home is only a +1.9 xGD in eight away matches.

Newcastle has also played three big six teams away from home Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United who we can all agree are worse than Arsenal and Newcastle lost the expected goals battle in all three of those matches.

One thing Arsenal did such a good job against Brighton, which will be crucial in this match against Newcastle is their counter pressing. Brighton is one of the best teams in the Premier League at not only playing through pressure, but playing through the middle of the pitch.

Arsenal forced six high turnovers against Brighton who is a top seven team at playing through pressure. Newcastle if they have one weakness it’s that they are very susceptible to the counter press, as they’re 12th in Offensive PPDA.

Well, that was fast. 😳

Bukayo Saka fires Arsenal into the lead in just the second minute!

📺 @nbc and @peacock#MyPLMorning |

— NBC Sports Soccer (@NBCSportsSoccer) December 31, 2022

Arsenal doesn’t really have a weakness defensively at the moment either. They’re the best team in the Premier League at defending in transition, as they allow the fewest progressive passes + dribbles per 90 minutes. They allow the fewest crosses completed in their own box, they’ve allowed the second fewest passes into their own penalty area, and have conceded the second fewest big scoring chances.

Arsenal has been over performing offensively, but they have still created 11.5 expected goals in their last five matches and just created five big scoring chances against a top seven defense at their own ground.

Arsenal has also done a great job creating overloads in the wide areas, as Granit Xhaka has been getting forward a lot more into the number 8 role, while Odegaard has been allowed to roam to create those overloads, which is why Saka and Martenelli have had so much room up the flanks.

Trippier is no the best defensive right back in the world and Newcastle is going to be without Matt Targett on the left, so Arsenal should be able to exploit Newcastle in the wide areas. Also, Alexander Isak still out for Newcastle.

I have Arsenal projected at -143, so I love the value on the Gunners at -121.

Pick: Arsenal -121 (BetRivers)

Leeds vs. West Ham

Leeds Odds+160
West Ham Odds+160
Over/Under2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | TimeWednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Leeds is now dead last in the Premier League in non-penalty expected goals allowed at 1.62 per 90 minutes. They have conceded over six expected goals in their last two matches against Manchester City and Newcastle.

In their last six matches, they have conceded 12 big scoring chances. West Ham flat out destroyed them in both meetings last season, as they created a combined 4.7 expected goals and five big scoring chances over their two meetings. Mainly because West Ham is top five in the Premier League at playing through pressure.

West Ham is one of the biggest positive regression candidate in the Premier League right now. Currently sitting in 17th place with a +1.6 xGD, but a -9 actual goal differential. West Ham has lost five straight matches by a combined score of 10 to 2, expected goals has only been 7.7 to 5.1. West Ham is way overdue for an offensive explosion that is coming at some point because they’ve scored 13 goals off 19.6 expected this season.

So, what better way to get all of that positive regression back than a trip to Elland Road to take on the worst defense in Premier League that is going to give you acres of space in transition.

I have West Ham's total goals projected at 1.48, so I love the value on their team total Over 1.5 goals at +132 at FanDuel.

Pick: West Ham Over 1.5 goals (+132)

Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham

Crystal Palace Odds+220
Tottenham Odds+120
Over/Under2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | TimeWednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via Bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Tottenham’s major attacking problems were on full display in Spurs’ lifeless 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa on Sunday. Spurs aren’t getting the same production from Son that they did last season and the wing backs aren’t getting into the penalty area with the same ease. Spurs have clearly regressed and more problems lie ahead once the attack cools off its finishing streak.

Spurs defensive issues are overstated as teams have finished against them at an unsustainable rate in the last month or so. They still defend the penalty area well and don’t concede many big chances with their first choice defense and goalkeeper available.

But Tottenham’s attack is lacking and too reliant on set pieces to create magic. Spurs are the most efficient set piece attack in the entire league, but they lack the creative quality from midfield and the wide areas to break down a well drilled defensive side. Enter Crystal Palace, whose defense hasn’t been as stout as last season but is typically well organized and difficult to beat in front of their home crowd.

Palace also have major attacking issues this season. The Eagles are 18th in xG created, don’t create big scoring chances and sit in the bottom three in box entries per match. Without a true striker and Conor Gallagher to connect the transition elements, Palace’s attack has dropped off.

The market has moved sharply against Spurs as a whole in this spot, but there remains value in fading their attack by betting under 2.5 goals at -110.

Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-110)

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