Premier League Odds, Picks | Brighton vs Bournemouth Preview (April 4)

Premier League Odds, Picks | Brighton vs Bournemouth Preview (April 4) article feature image

Justin Setterfield/Getty. Pictured: Danny Welbeck and Kaoru Mitoma.

Bournemouth vs Brighton Odds

Tuesday, April 4
2:45 p.m. ET

Bournemouth Odds


Brighton Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-120 / +100)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-120 / -110)
Odds via PointsBet. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Bournemouth continue to try to get out of the relegation zone when they host Brighton for a South Coast derby on Tuesday.

They got a much needed victory over the weekend, beating Fulham 2-1. However, the Cherries are still in the relegation zone and desperate for points. They lost to Brighton on a late goal in the reverse fixture just a short time ago. They've played much better at home than they have on the road, so we'll see if they can get a much needed result.

Brighton continue to be an offensive juggernaut under Roberto De Zerbi. The Seagulls are battling for a spot in the top six and European football for the first time in the club's history. However, after drawing with Brentford over the weekend, they also are need of points to keep up with Manchester United, Liverpool, Newcastle and Tottenham.

Bournemouth Thriving Offensively

Bournemouth cooked Fulham on Saturday posting one of their best offensive outputs of the season. Since January 21st, Bournemouth have created 12.2 xG in nine matches. The Cherries are so good at creating one or two huge chances a match, similar to that of Brentford. They also are a top five team in terms of xG per set piece, while Brighton are 15th in xG per set piece and conceded one to Brentford on Saturday.

A good indicator of how good teams are in transition offense or defense is final third to penalty box conversion rate. Teams like Bournemouth don’t hold a lot of possession, so a lot of their attacking opportunities are in transition.

Similar to Brighton, a team that holds a lot of possession, a significant portion of their defending ends up being in transition when they are facing a non-big six club. Bournemouth are 10th offensively in that category, while Brighton are 17th defensively.

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Brighton Firing on All Cylinders

Brighton just continue to be an offensive force and are showing no signs of slowing down. Against one of the better low block teams in the Premier League and a team that plays a similar style to that of Bournemouth, Brighton scored three goals and some xG models had them creating a whopping 4.5 xG. Under 

In the previous match against Bournemouth, Brighton did exactly what they did to Brentford on Saturday. The Seagulls held 70.3% possession, they tilted the field on the Cherries at 75.3% and created 2.2 xG, with Mitoma getting a late goal to win 1-0.

Bournemouth were effective on the counter, however, as they created 1.1 xG for the match. When Brighton attack they push so many men forward, trying to create overloads in certain parts of the opponent's pitch so they can break down low blocks like the one Bournemouth are going to play. It has been effective, but it also means they can be exposed in transition.

Bournemouth vs Brighton Pick

Given what we just saw with Brighton and Brentford this past weekend, I think this is going to be a high scoring affair.

Bournemouth play a very similar style to that of Brentford, as they like to sit in a low block, looking to counter. They've done so very effectively in their last nine matches. They also are a very efficient set piece offense, which is an advantage against Brighton.

De Zerbi's aggressive attacking style of play allows Brighton to create a boat load of chances and effectively break down low blocks. However, it also leaves them very exposed in transition, where Bournemouth thrive.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-120) 

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