Premier League Odds, Pick & Preview: Wolves vs. Leicester City EPL Betting Prediction (Feb. 20)
John Walton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Sa
- The Wolves are home favorites against Leicester City on Sunday.
- Brett Pund breaks down this EPL matchup and shares his best bet below.
Wolves vs. Leicester City Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / +105)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Wolverhampton Wanderers welcome Leicester City to the Molineux Stadium on Sunday in a match between two mid-table teams to close out the weekend’s Premier League schedule.
Wolves come into the game in seventh on 37 points, riding high and in great form with wins in five of the last seven league fixtures.
Meanwhile, things have not been going as well for the Foxes lately, picking up just one win over their last six in the EPL to drop to 11th.
Looking at the recent history of this game, Wolves have failed to beat Leicester in the last five meetings in the league. However, I think this is a great spot for the home team to secure a victory.
Wolves: Keeper Sá Keeping Team Afloat
The story of the season for manager Bruno Lage’s team has been the play of the defense, which has carried Wolves to this point.
Lage’s side ranks in the top five in the English top-flight in goals allowed (17), opponents’ shots per match (12.04) and big scoring chances surrendered (19), according to fbref.com.
One top performer for Wolves this season has been goalkeeper José Sá, who only trails David de Gea in the EPL in post-shot xG minus goals allowed at +7.4. The next-closest keeper is Liverpool’s Alisson at +3.6.
On the attacking end, everything for the club runs through Mexican striker Raúl Jiménez, who will need to improve on his goal tally to keep Wolves in the top half of the table.
Leicester City: Defensive Struggles Continue, Particularly Away
If Wolves are one of the top defensive teams in the Premier League, Leicester could not be further away from that as the team has struggled all season stopping sides from scoring.
The Foxes are near the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes (1.82) and opponents’ shots surrendered per match (16).
This is the same Leicester team that has given up the most goals from set-pieces this season at 13, with 10 of those coming away from home.
Manager Brendan Rodgers could also be without two of his main men for this match, with Jamie Vardy out injured for an extended period and midfielder James Maddison forced off in the midweek Europa Conference League victory.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When you look at the odds at DraftKings, Wolves are listed as the home favorite at +125 on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5.
This is an excellent spot to play the home team here for a great plus price to secure a win, which is more of a fade of the struggling visitors.
Over the last six league games, Leicester have posted a -5.9 expected goals difference and allowed an average of 2.4 expected goals to its opponents.
The Foxes have also struggled recently away from home, failing to win in the last five league road games to go along with a -4.2 xG difference. This stretch also includes a 4-1 loss in the FA Cup at EFL Championship side Nottingham Forest.
You also have to factor in the missing pieces of Vardy and Maddison, who have directly been involved in 19 of Leicester’s 36 (53%) EPL goals this season.
As for Wolves, they do struggle to create scoring chances in matches, but everybody has been able to squeeze out opportunities against Leicester.
The poor form plus the key missing players for the Foxes make Wolves a strong play at a plus price to claim a victory.
Pick: Wolves ML (+125)