Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: West Ham vs. Norwich City (Saturday, July 11)

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ADAM DAVY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: David Moyes

West Ham at Norwich City Odds, Pick

West Ham odds -104 [BET NOW]
Norwich City odds +275 [BET NOW]
Draw +265 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-122/-103) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Relegation will be theme on Saturday morning as West Ham heads to Carrow Road to take on last-place Norwich City. Anything other than a win will officially relegate the Canaries.

West Ham are three points clear of the relegation line and, with only four matches remaining in the season, this is the Hammers’ best opportunity to throw some points in the bag as they continue to scrap with Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Watford to stay in the Premier League.

Norwich City

The Canaries have been terrible all season and have lost all five all Premier League matches (and one FA Cup game) during Project Restart.

Although Norwich City have been outscored, 11-1, in their five Premier League matches, they haven’t performed as poorly as the scoreline suggests. The Canaries have a -2.74 xG differential (6.21 to 3.47) since play resumed.

This is nothing new to Norwich City, who have been due for some positive regression all season. According to expected points (xPoints), the Canaries deserve to have 32.4 points on the season. Instead, they are sitting on 21.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Norwich’s offense has been especially unfortunate. The Canaries are only scoring 0.76 goals per match despite creating 1.04 xG per 90 minutes. A lack of finishing talent could certainly be playing a role in Norwich’s underachieving attack, but there’s no denying they deserve a slightly better fate than the one they are experiencing.

If ever there was an opportunity for Norwich’s offense to come out of a rut, this would be it, as West Ham sport the second-worst defense in the Premier League.

West Ham

Going by expected goals, only Aston Villa are worse defensively than West Ham, who concede 1.90 xG per match. The Hammers have improved during Project Restart but they are still conceding 1.46 xG per 90 in their last five matches.

West Ham have been especially bad on the road this season, ranking last in xPoints, 19th in xGA and 16th in xGF away from home. The Hammers have laid an egg in their last seven road matches, earning just one point and sporting a -0.95 average xG differential (1.13 xGF, 2.08 xGA) in that span.

Even though they’re going up against the last-place team in the Premier League, it’s no guarantee the Hammers will be able to dominate this match.

Analysis

This match opened around a pick’em, but West Ham has moved all the way to -104 thanks to 84% of the moneyline dollars being on the Hammers, per The Action Network App.

Based on my model, that line movement has created some value on the home side:

  • Norwich projected odds: +162 (38.15% win probability)
  • West Ham projected odds: +170 (37.06%)
  • Draw projected odds: +303 (24.79%)
  • Norwich projected xG: 1.46
  • West Ham projected xG: 1.44
Pick: Norwich City +0.5 (-115)
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