Premier League Week 38 Odds, Preview: Manchester City, Liverpool Coming Down to the Wire

Premier League Week 38 Odds, Preview: Manchester City, Liverpool Coming Down to the Wire article feature image
Credit:

Rui Vieira/Associated Press. Pictured: Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola

  • The 2018-19 Premier League season comes to a close on Sunday, May 12th with all twenty clubs in action at 10 a.m. ET.
  • There's plenty at stake including the title, top four, top goalscorer and season point totals.
  • We've broken down the entire board for Week 38 to find the most lopsided bets, sharp money, value plays and more.

Premier League Title Odds

Manchester City hold a one-point advantage over Liverpool and will win the Premier League if they beat Brighton on Sunday.

Liverpool are currently listed at +650 to hoist the trophy and will need Man City to drop points to have a chance at winning the title. That will be a difficult ask as City have won 13 straight EPL matches.

Unfortunately there’s no drama at the bottom of the table in the relegation race since Fulham, Huddersfield and Cardiff City will all be playing in the English Championship next season.

2018-19 Premier League Season Trends

  • Home Teams have won 48.38% of matches this year which is good for +31.39 units on the moneyline. Road teams (-13.75 u) and draws (-105.18 u) are both in the red.
  • Most Profitable Moneyline Clubs: Crystal Palace (+17.53 u), Leicester City (+14.08 u), Wolves (+11.22 u)
  • Least Profitable Moneyline Clubs: Huddersfield (-21.65 u), Fulham (-15.62 u), Southampton (-6.42 u)

Premier League Week 38 Odds and Betting Breakdown

Biggest Line Moves

Arsenal have defeated Burnley eight straight times and are coming off a decisive semifinal victory over Valencia to reach the Europa League Final, but bettors are fading the Gunners on the road Sunday.

The line is also moving away from Chelsea (Arsenal’s opponent in the Europa League Final) since the Blues have already wrapped up a Champions League berth for next season.

Leicester City have shifted from +240 to +140 which is roughly a 12% change in implied win probability, although the value might be gone at this point.

The other biggest movers have been Cardiff City (at Man Utd), Fulham (vs. Newcastle) and West Ham (at Watford).

Public vs. Sharp Bets

Watford-West Ham is shaping up to be the biggest “Pros vs. Joes” decision of the weekend. Nearly 80% of the bets are on Watford but they’ve worsened from -120 to +120 while West Ham have received a ton of sharp support.

Oddly enough, public and sharp bettors are aligned on all three relegated clubs: Huddersfield, Fulham and Cardiff City.

Late-season underdogs tend to be undervalued in the last month of the year. Not only are all three relegated teams receiving >50% of bets, but smart money has also hit each side to cause a huge adjustment in odds.

I backed Huddersfield (+785) and Leicester City (+225) early in the week, and also love the value on Everton to upset Tottenham at +325 odds.

Spurs are coming off an emotional and incredible 3-2 upset at Ajax in the Champions League semifinal and have essentially wrapped up another top-four berth already so there’s not much to play for. Their match against Everton is basically a toss-up so any price above +200 is well worth a bet.

Value Plays (42-85-1 record, -23.76 units)

  • Huddersfield (+785) at Southampton
  • Everton (+325) at Tottenham
  • Leicester City (+225) vs. Chelsea