Roma vs Brighton Odds, Predictions, Picks | Europa League Preview

Thursday, Mar. 7

12:45 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Roma Odds	+110
Brighton Odds	+240
Draw	+260
Over / Under	2.5 -125 / +100

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Roma vs Brighton is the highest profile matchup for the round of 16 of the Europa League knockouts. Liverpool and Bayer Leverkusen are the two clear favorites to win the entire tournament and both received friendly draws against Sparta Prague and Qarabag. Two of the next four teams on the odds board to win the entire tournament are Brighton (+1200) and Roma (+1600).

Roma made a run all the way to the Europa League final last year before losing to Sevilla in a penalty shootout. That was under manager J0sé Mourinho, who has been sacked and replaced by Daniele De Rossi. The Italian side advanced to this round with a dramatic penalty shootout victory over Feyenoord. Brighton advanced as the winner of a difficult group in the group stage, but the injury situation has left Roberto De Zerbi a bit shorthanded for this two-legged tie.

With little to separate these two sides, it is lined near a tossup to advance to the UEL quarterfinals.

Read on for my Roma vs Brighton prediction and my Europa League preview.

Roma's decision to fire Mourinho came at the end of a poor run of form that saw them lose 1-0 to rival Lazio in the Coppa Italia and lose to Juventus, Bologna and Milan in the league within a one month period. The goals have come in bunches in Serie A for the capital side, who has averaged three goals in the seven league matches since De Rossi became manager.

The two European matches with Feyenoord both ended 1-1, but the over has hit in seven of the nine matches in all competitions they've played under De Rossi. Given how negative Mourinho was in and out of possession, the narratives all make sense. It's important to understand how Roma have changed since De Rossi took over as manager in mid-January.

The two biggest changes have come in goal where Mile Slivar is playing over the aging Rui Patricio. Patricio was a Mourinho favorite despite his declining shot stopping metrics in the last two years. The other change is a switch from a more defensive Mourinho 3-5-2 into a 4-3-3 that gives more freedom to Paulo Dybala to roam and use his elite creation abilities in space.

Roma also haven't played a particularly difficult schedule in Serie A under De Rossi. They lost 4-2 at home to league leaders Inter and otherwise have beaten no one above mid-table.

Despite this relatively weak schedule, their passes per defensive action metric has actually dropped. It's not as if De Rossi is embracing a more pressing and possession style — the Italian side is pressing less and tilting the field less than they did under Mourinho. Their struggles to press Brighton could create some issues for them in this match.

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Brighton have never played in a European knockout match, which makes this uncharted territory for the club. The Seagulls will be without Joao Pedro, Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March and Jack Hinshelwood and that will force De Zerbi to continue rotating his squad heavily. The Seagulls have struggled to manage Premier League and European competitions simultaneously and they've had issues against good defend and counter teams all season long.

All of this would point to Roma having the advantage in this tie. Brighton has a +0.26 xG difference per 90 in the Premier League, which makes them a solid Europa League level team in England. If you league adjust the xG differential of both clubs this season, then Brighton should be power rated higher than their Italian counterparts in this match.

Roma are 10th in passes per defensive action in Italy and Brighton are the second best build-up completion rate team in the most physical and fastest league in the world. Given how much pressing is down in Italy relatively, it's easy to see Brighton having a ton of ball playing advantages in this matchup. The Italian side has an elite penalty area defense that could stifle Brighton's attacks, but the flow of the game through go through De Zerbi's side.

The common narrative storyline with the Seagulls is that their defense is a major problem given their play style. But if you can't effectively disrupt the Brighton build-up, the defense isn't nearly as stretched in transition moments. The defense is actually fifth in total xGA this year, and the attack is only eighth best in the PL at creating chances.

Brighton will have their first choice defense and its most athletic midfield available, so I wouldn't expect a wide open match that's extremely back and forth.

Brighton's set piece defense issues are sure to be a potential issue in a knockout tournament, but the Seagulls have advantages in and out of possession in this matchup. Roma has gotten a solid bump in market rating in the last two months under De Rossi, but there's very little to separate these two sides in what should be a lower-event first leg.

If you can find Brighton to win or draw at -130 or better, I'd bet that given I still have them rated as the better team. Otherwise, I'd bet the draw at +250 or better and think this plays out similarly to Roma's two legs against Feyenoord.

Pick: Draw +260