Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Southampton vs. Chelsea (Saturday, Feb. 20)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Southampton vs. Chelsea (Saturday, Feb. 20) article feature image
Credit:

Adrian Dennis/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Timo Werner.

  • Southampton host Chelsea to start the weekend of Premier League soccer on Saturday morning.
  • The Blues have been stout defensively under new manager Thomas Tuchel, but their attack is on the cusp of a breakout performance.
  • Kieran Darcy lays out why he's betting the over on England's south coast.

Southampton vs. Chelsea Odds

Southampton Odds +390
Chelsea Odds -134
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-112 / -112)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds updated as of Friday at 10:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings, where you can get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus.


Southampton vs. Chelsea is the first of four Premier League matches on Saturday, featuring two teams currently headed in very different directions.

Chelsea have won four league games in a row and have risen to fourth in the table. Southampton have lost six in a row, dropping them to 13th.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a prediction.

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Southampton

Southampton’s  current losing streak is a club record, but they’re still not in much danger of relegation, at least at this point. The Saints have 29 points, 10 points ahead of 18th-placed Fulham.

The Saints should be a little lower in the table though, in terms of xG (expected goal) difference, according to FBRef.com — 15th place, at -7.1.

Southampton is coming off a 2-1 loss at home to Wolves last Sunday, which was preceded by a 3-2 defeat at Newcastle. Prior to that was the 9-0 disaster at Manchester United.

This losing streak has tended to feature high-scoring games, however — four of the past five matches have featured three goals or more, also including a 3-1 loss to Arsenal. (The exception was a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa, in which Southampton collected 1.7 xG and were very unlucky.)

Chelsea

Chelsea have now gone unbeaten in manager Thomas Tuchel’s first five league matches since replacing Frank Lampard. He opened with a scoreless draw against Wolves, which has been followed by wins over Burnley (2-0), Tottenham (1-0), Sheffield United (2-1) and Newcastle (2-0).

The only goal Chelsea conceded under Tuchel was an own goal. The most xG they’ve conceded in any of those five matches was 0.7, which came against Newcastle on Monday. The Blues have conceded just 2.0 total xG in those five games combined.

On the flip side, Chelsea haven’t scored more than two goals in any of those five matches, and have scored just seven goals in total.  The total xG output has been slightly better, at 7.6.

 

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Chelsea aren’t firing on all cylinders offensively under Tuchel yet, but there have been signs of improvement. They’ve amassed at least 2.0 xG in two of their previous three league games. And Timo Werner finally ended his scoring drought against Newcastle, with his first goal since early November.

Werner also took four shots against Newcastle, and is averaging three shots per game in four appearances under Tuchel. Remember, this is a player who scored 28 goals in 34 Bundesliga appearances last season for RB Leipzig.

As for Southampton, they’re obviously not in good form. But, as mentioned above, there have been three or more goals in four of their past five matches. And there have been far more goals in Southampton matches this season than you would have expected given the xG totals. Southampton have scored 30 goals, on just 22.9 xG. But they’ve also conceded 39 goals, on just 30.1 xG conceded.

These two teams played out a 3-3 draw at Stamford Bridge back in mid-October. Lampard was in charge of Chelsea back then, but I think it’s fair to expect at least half that number of goals this time around.

Picks: Total over 2.5 (-112)

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