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Saturday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Best Bets, Featuring Newcastle-Bournemouth (September 17)

Saturday Soccer Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Best Bets, Featuring Newcastle-Bournemouth (September 17) article feature image
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Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images. Pictured: Kieran Trippier.

  • Looking for some betting action before the college football slate gets going for the day?
  • Look no further than our experts' early-morning European soccer bets.
  • Read on for three valuable wagers, all kicking off before 10.

Saturday is for college football, we know that, but with a full slate of soccer odds released and no football kick off until 12 p.m. ET, why not dive into the other football for a few wagers before noon.

Below, Nick Hennion, BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo have identified their top bets to make, with a catch: Each game kicks off at 10 a.m. ET or earlier, meaning each will also end before a snap of college football is played.

Read on to see how our staff is playing the early morning slate of European soccer.

Our 3 Early Saturday Best Bets

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Werder Bremen

Leverkusen Odds -160
Werder Bremen Odds +350
Draw +320
Over/Under 3.5 (+115 / -145)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Hennion: Perhaps a midweek Champions League victory against Atletico Madrid will see Leverkusen turn a corner and start to positively regress.

Through six matches this season, the Werkself possess a -3 goal differential and have only scored eight total goals. However, they simultaneously own a +3 big scoring chances differential and have produced 17 big scoring chances, the third-most in the Bundesliga.

Just in two home matches, Leverkusen have a -5 goal differential against a +4 big scoring chances differential and have underperformed offensively by six goals.

On the flip-side, Werder Bremen arrive at this fixture a negative regression candidate. Through their opening six fixtures, they has a +1 goal differential against a -2 big scoring chances differential. Plus, Werder Bremen’s biggest strength – second in pressure success rate – is going up against a Leverkusen defense that ranks fifth in the Bundesliga in pressure rate against, per fbref.com.

As a result, I’m willing to lay a goal with Leverkusen at -115 or better on Saturday.

Pick: Leverkusen -1 (-105)

VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt

Stuttgart Odds +130
Frankfurt Odds +200
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-146/ +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: Eintracht Frankfurt had a solid road win in Marseille in the Champions League on Tuesday, but they remain overvalued in the Bundesliga markets.

Stuttgart finished the 2021-22 season with a marginally better expected goal (xG) difference, even though Frankfurt finished four spots higher in the league table due to variance.

Stuttgart also have comparable underlying numbers in the 2022-23 season and are rated higher in my power ratings of the German top flight. Frankfurt lost Filip Kostic in the summer transfer window and no player completed more crosses into the penalty area in Europe’s top five leagues over the past few seasons.

The attack has fallen off considerably in his departure, excluding a one-off result against Leipzig. Frankfurt produced 0.5 xG at home against Wolfsburg last week, 1.2 against Werder Bremen and 0.4 against Köln in matches prior.

Frankfurt have never been a consistently above-average side under Oliver Glasner. They pulled off a great Europa League run, but they’re now at a rest disadvantage after playing a midweek match and remain a prime fade candidate in Germany.

Stuttgart had really poor finishing last season, but they are also a league-average team and due for positive regression after finishing with a -6 xG differential and a -18 actual differential in 2021-22.

The market has moved toward Stuttgart and I like them at +130 or better as the slightly better team at home.

Pick: Stuttgart ML (+130)

Newcastle vs. Bournemouth

Newcastle Odds -230
Bournemouth Odds +650
Draw +350
Over/Under 2.5 (-116 / -106)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Newcastle might be for real, especially with Alexander Isak.

Against Nottingham Forest, Brighton, Wolves and Crystal Palace, Newcastle have a +3.6 xGD and they’ve only allowed 3.3 xG in those four matches. Bournemouth have had a difficult schedule, playing Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City in three of their first six matches.

However, if we isolate the matches against Aston Villa, Wolves and Nottingham Forest, here is Bournemouth’s offensive output: 1.9 xG, 20 shots, 36 box entries, 14 shots in the penalty area, 0 big scoring chances and a 31.3% to 68.7% field tilt. That is bad.

I think we have to admit that Newcastle has become a good defensive team because since February of last season, as the Magpies have allowed 11.9 xGA in 15 matches against non-big six sides and in only five of those 15 matches did their opponent create over 1.0 xG.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-120)

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