Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Lyon vs. Lille (Sunday, April 25)

Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Lyon vs. Lille (Sunday, April 25) article feature image
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LOIC VENANCE/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Memphis Depay.

  • The Ligue 1 title race is heating up, with Sunday's huge match between Lyon and Lille becoming a crucial meeting.
  • Both sides are looking to dethrone Paris Saint-Germain, which won in its Saturday fixture. This game will feature Lyon's attack against Lille's stellar defense.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup below.

Lyon vs. Lille Odds

Lyon Odds +114
Lille Odds +235
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (-106 / -118)
Day | Time Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

A huge match on Sunday in Ligue 1 that could potentially decide the title as  Lyon hosts Lille.

Lyon is in the heat of the title race, sitting only three points behind Lille for second place and five points off leaders PSG with a game in hand. However, they haven’t been in great form over the past month, winning only two of their last five matches. Not only does Lyon need this match for the title race, but they also need all three points to get back into the top three to qualify for the Champions League.

Lille are in the middle of a fantastic season and looking to win their first title in over a decade. The main reason for that is because of their defense, which has the best record of any team in Europe. They failed to find a winner in the second half against 10-men Lyon in the first meeting, so it’ll be interesting to see if they’re more clinical in front of goal in the second meeting.

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Lyon

Les Gones are back in the title race after a dip in form during the middle of the campaign. The reason they’re near the top of the table is because of their offense, which has scored the second-most goals in France and averages an insane 2.18 xGF per match. Lyon also has the best expected-goal differential in Ligue 1 at +40.29 through 33 matches.

However, you don’t achieve an expected-goal differential that good with just a high-flying offense. Lyon also has one of the best defenses in Ligue 1, allowing only 0.95 xG per match. In fact, even though they were down to 10 men for the final 40 minutes of the game after Marcelo got sent off, Lyon still only allowed Lille to create 0.52 xG for the match.

Lyon has a lethal duo up front in Karl Toko Ekambi and Memphis Depay, who have combined for 31 goals and 14 assists. They’re averaging 1.12 xG per 90 minutes combined for the season. Needless to say, the duo is going to be a problem for Lille’s defense.

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Lille

Lille had a three-point lead over the pack after their upset win over PSG a few weeks ago. However, they drew with Montpellier at home last Friday, which has allowed all of the title challengers back into the race.

Lille is the best defensive team in Europe, allowing 0.68 xG per match in Ligue 1 play. But what makes their defense so good?

Lille typically line up in a 4-4-2, although that can change in an instant depending on what they see from their opponent. In reality, Lille plays a 4-2-4, with the two outside wingers pushing far out wide to create space in the middle for the two strikers.

Defensively, they are incredibly organized at the back with all four defenders on the back line playing in unison and usually bunching towards the middle to force the opponents to play the ball from out wide.

The wingers are required to get back and defend the opposing wing backs making runs out wide, but they have done a phenomenal job of that this year. If you want to read in depth tactical analysis on Lille’s ascension to the top of the table, the guys at NACSport have done a fantastic job breaking it all down.

Bottom line: Lille are likely going to sit back and play very defensive against Lyon. Additionally, Lille’s offense hasn’t been that lethal this season, as they only are averaging 1.27 xG per match, which ranks ninth in Ligue 1.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Even though Lille has the best defense in France, I think Lyon’s offense is capable of breaking them down. Lille is likely going to play very defensive and try to hit Lyon on the counter attack, which means Lyon will probably end up with a high amount of possession.

Since I have Lyon projected at -106, I think there is a little bit of value on them at +114 (DraftKings).

Pick: Lyon +114

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