Belgium takes on the host nation USA in a crucial Round of 16 clash on July 6, with kickoff scheduled for 8:00 PM EST at Lumen Field in Seattle.
The United States enters this knockout tie as a slight favorite after a series of impressive performances but faces a Belgian side that staged a miraculous comeback to advance. A victory would secure a historic quarterfinal spot for the USA on home soil.
Belgium is favored at a +160 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-135o / +105u) goals.
Let's get into my USA vs Belgium prediction.
USA vs Belgium Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-105)
My USA vs Belgium best bets are that both teams will find the back of the net and will score 3+ total goals.
USA vs Belgium Odds
| Belgium Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +140 | 2.5 -135o / +105u | +160 |
| United States Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -200 | 2.5 -135o / +105u | +170 |
USA vs Belgium World Cup Preview
This knockout match is a rematch of the 2014 Round of 16 clash, where Belgium eliminated the USA after extra time. The Americans are now seeking revenge on home soil. The tactical battle will be fascinating, as both teams are comfortable controlling possession.
Under Mauricio Pochettino, the USA has thrived by dominating the ball, winning 13 of 18 fixtures when maintaining a share of 54% or higher.
However, Belgium, under Rudi Garcia, is adept at playing without the ball. They are undefeated in the six matches where they have had less than 54% possession, winning four and drawing two. The Americans’ aggressive defensive press, which allows just 9.7 passes per defensive action, could leave them vulnerable to Belgium's skilled players in transition.
Historically, Belgium has had the upper hand in this fixture. The teams met in the very first international tournament in 1930, with the US winning 3-0. But the most recent competitive encounter, in 2014, went to Belgium. More recently, a friendly in March 2026 ended in a 5-2 win for the Belgians in Atlanta.
While the USA has a poor historical record against European opposition in this competition, their 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the previous round broke a 10-game losing streak and will give them confidence.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your USA vs Belgium picks.
USA vs Belgium Picks, Betting Analysis
- Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-105, DraftKings)
The case for both teams scoring is compelling. The USA has been an offensive force, scoring in all four of its matches in the competition, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
Mauricio Pochettino's squad has been exceptionally clinical, converting 5.58 expected goals (xG) into 10 actual goals. They have failed to score in just two of their last 20 international contests, demonstrating a consistent attacking threat.
Furthermore, when priced as an underdog (over +150 on the moneyline) since the start of 2025, the USA has kept only one clean sheet in 10 such matches. Seven of those games saw both teams score, with the contests averaging 3.7 total goals.
This trend suggests that against tougher opposition like Belgium, the US defense is likely to be breached.
Belgium brings its own offensive potency. They have scored eight goals in their last two tournament games and have seen both teams score in three of their four matches so far. While their attack is dangerous, their defense has been a significant concern.
Belgium has conceded the second-most xG per 90 minutes (1.38) of any nation remaining in the tournament. Senegal repeatedly exposed these weaknesses in the Round of 32, and the high-pressing American side should be able to create similar chances.
The most recent meeting between these nations was a friendly in March that ended in a 5-2 victory for Belgium, a match that featured 33 shots and 4.31 xG.
USA vs Belgium Predicted Lineups
USA Expected Lineup (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper: Freese
- Defenders: Freeman, Ream, Richards, Robinson
- Midfielders: Tillman, Adams, McKennie
- Forwards: Dest, Balogun, Pulisic
Belgium Expected Lineup (4-2-3-1)
- Goalkeeper: Courtois
- Defenders: Castagne, Theate, Mechele, De Cuyper
- Midfielders: Vanaken, Tielemans, Trossard; De Bruyne, Doku
- Forwards: De Ketelaere
USA vs Belgium Weather
According to Google Weather, it will be sunny and comfortable for Monday's match. The temperature will peak at 80 degrees during the day with a low of 56 degrees.
