Lyon vs. Rennes Odds & Picks: How To Bet Wednesday’s Ligue 1 Match

Lyon vs. Rennes Odds & Picks: How To Bet Wednesday’s Ligue 1 Match article feature image
Credit:

Philippe Desmazes/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Lyon star Memphis Depay, center, celebrates a goal with teammates.

  • Lyon welcomes struggling Rennes to Groupama Stadium for Wednesday's Ligue 1 match.
  • Les Gones sit just three points behind league-leader Lille in the race for the championship in France's top flight.
  • BJ Cunningham details why he expects a low-scoring confrontation below.

Lyon vs. Rennes Odds

Lyon Odds -182
Rennes Odds +475
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125) 
Day | Time Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings.

Lyon looks to stay in the Ligue 1 title race Wednesday when it hosts Rennes in crucial midweek showdown.

Les Gones, currently third in the French top flight, have taken a bit of a step back the past few weeks, as they only have one win their last three matches. Lyon is just three points behind Lille for the top spot on the table, so this match is vitally important for its chances at bringing home their first title since 2008.

Rennes has been in dreadful form over the past two months, as it only has a single victory in its last nine fixtures. The bad run has caused the Red and Blacks to drop all the way down to ninth place in the standings.

However, Rennes has been much better away from home and has actually won three of its last four matches at Groupama Stadium, so it could potentially pull off an upset in this meeting.

Lyon

Les Gones are back in the title race after a disappointing 2019-20 season. The reason they’re near the top of the table is because of their offense, which has scored the second-most goals in France and averages an insane 2.23 xGF per match. Lyon also has the best expected-goal differential in Ligue 1 at +34.89 through 27 matches.

However, you don’t achieve an expected-goal differential that good with just a high-flying offense. Lyon also has one of the best defenses in Ligue 1, allowing only 0.95 xG per match and only 0.65 xG per match from open play. In fact, even though Rennes scored two goals in their first meeting, Lyon only allowed its foe to create 0.86 xG for the match.

Lyon has a lethal duo up front in Karl Toko Ekambi and Memphis Depay, who have combined for 27 goals and 12 assists. They’re averaging 1.15 xG per 90 minutes combined for the season. Needless to say, the duo is going to be a problem for Rennes defense.

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Rennes

It’s been a dreadful year for the Red and Blacks, who finished third last season. They’ve already failed to get out of their Champions League group stage, and are now stuck in the middle of the table.

The reason Rennes was in third place in its previous campaign is because it has some incredible young talents on its squad like Eduardo Camavinga, Jeremy Doku and Faitout Maouassa, who all are 18 years old and have garnered interest from some of the biggest clubs in the world like Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich.

Rennes’ issue during its recent bad run of form is it has really struggled to create chances in front of net, as the club has failed to create more than 1.00 expected goals in six of its last nine matches. Defensively though, Rennes has been one of the best teams in France, allowing only 0.97 xG per match, which is third behind only Lille and Lyon.

So, Rennes will be well equipped to handle Lyon’s attack.

Betting Analysis & Picks

With two of the three best defenses in France going up against each other, I think there is a good chance we will see a low-scoring affair. Even though the first meeting between these two sided ended in a 2-2 draw, only 1.98 xG were created in the match.

Since I only have 2.47 goals projected for this game, I am going to back under 2.5 goals at +125 odds as my top play.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+125)

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