Wolverhampton vs. Southampton EPL Betting Preview: Updated Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton standout Che Adams.
Wolves vs. Southampton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Fresh off a sterling midweek performance against Chelsea, Southampton travels to the Midlands on Saturday to face Wolverhampton Wanderers in their Premier League matchup.
For their efforts, Wolves secured a point in a 0-0 draw this past Wednesday at Bournemouth and remain without a win this season.
However, Wolverhampton now faces an opponent it has historically dominated. Manger Bruno Lage’s side has won three in a row against the Saints, including a deserved 3-1 thumping in their most recent matchup.
The early results haven’t gone the host’s way, but the club could see some positive regression soon.
Through its opening four matches, Wolves have a -2 goal differential against a zero differential on big scoring chances. Plus, their attack has proved quite misfortunate as it has scored only two goals on seven big scoring chances in those four contests.
That said, this Wolverhampton defense still needs to improve if it’s to start earning points. Although positive offensive regression could come soon, negative regression could be on the way defensively (four goals against on seven big chances against) as well.
Plus, three of Wolves’ last four opponents have generated at least one expected goal against them.
By The Numbers
- -1.5 — Wolverhampton’s goals minus expected goals at Bournemouth
- T-9th — Wolves ranking in big scoring chances in the Premier League table.
In starting the season, Southampton has proven a bit of a difficult team to predict on the pitch.
Despite earning results in three of its first five matches, manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side has won the big scoring chances battle in only two of those five fixtures.
If there’s one area where the Saints have proven consistent, it’s on the defensive end. Through five fixtures, Southampton has conceded nine goals on nine big scoring chances. The Saints have also surrendered at least one xG in four of its first five fixtures, per fbref.com.
At the same time, Southampton could see some positive regression offensively soon. In those same five matches, it has scored seven goals on nine big scoring chances.
By The Numbers
- 3 — Total number of big scoring chances for Southampton when facing Wolverhampton last season.
- 1.73 — The xGA per 90 minutes for Wolves in their last eight road EPL fixtures.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I have no interest in getting involved with either side, but do see an edge with a wager on the prop market.
Historically, the Both Teams To Score bet has proven quite profitable in this head-to-head fixture. Just in the last five head-to-head meetings, the “Yes” side of this prop has cashed in four of them. Across the most recent eight meetings, the “Yes” has connected six times.
Additionally, the most recent meeting proved super wide open with the sides combining for seven big scoring chances — four for Wolves; three for Southampton — in a 3-1 victory for Wolverhampton.
With both clubs entering this matchup as positive regression candidates on offense, I’ll take a shot on both teams to score at what I consider to be a discounted price.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130)