Adelaide International Round 1 and ATP Cup Tennis Odds and Predictions (Jan. 3)
Credit: Mark Kolbe, Getty. John Isner hits a volley at the ATP Cup.
While much of the focus for the ATP Tour has been on the ATP Cup, two 250-level events have been getting underway.
That means that there are plenty of matches to look at every day, and you don’t have to limit yourself to a specific tournament for betting opportunities.
There are spots in both the ATP Cup and the Adelaide International tournament where I believe there are valuable prices to look at. Read on to see how I’m evaluating the matches on Monday night.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
John Isner (-225) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff (+168)
6:00 p.m. ET, ATP Cup
I understand that Struff looked really poor in his opening match against Dan Evans, but is this a fair correction to the market? I’m not so sure.
It’s not like Isner was unreal in a 6-3 6-1 victory against Brayden Schnur. Isner was workmanlike and put together a quality outing, but that’s the type of result that he’s expected to get against someone of Schnur’s caliber. With all respect to the Canadian, he didn’t win a single match past the qualifying rounds of the tour last year.
Isner is a player that has given Struff a bunch of problems in the past, but their last meeting came in 2019 when the American put together an incredible US Open performance. In the two non-slam events where the duo have faced off, Struff took a set off of Isner and lost in three.
Matching up with a player like Evans was tough for Struff. The Brit got too many balls in play and was efficient behind his serve, offering Struff no room to breathe. Only hitting three aces versus three double faults didn’t help much either, and that’s why the German number two was thoroughly outplayed.
If he can raise his level on serve and take advantage of the marginal advantage he has on the ground, Struff can put himself into an advantageous position to compete and create opportunities.
Pick: 0.5u Struff to win a set (-150 via PointsBet) | 0.5u Struff +168
Francisco Cerundolo (-135) vs. Gianluca Mager (+105)
12:30 a.m. ET
This is an interesting stylistic matchup between two players that prefer to be on clay, but I give a solid advantage to the Italian.
Cerundolo only won three matches on hard courts in 2021, and all of them came in the qualifying stages of events (with two matches against clay-courters). His win against Daniel Galan in the second Adelaide qualifying round is probably his best on hard courts to date, but Mager will present a different type of player.
He wasn’t entirely comfortable on hard courts prior to the past season, but he enjoyed a bit of success on the surface in the second half of the season. There wasn’t really a match where he looked out of place, taking sets off of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Marton Fucsovics, among others.
Mager won 74 percent of the points behind his first serve and 50 percent of the points behind his second serve on hard courts in 2021, and he amassed an ace-to-double fault ratio higher than two-to-one by the end of the season.
Cerundolo doesn’t have the same type of consistency behind his serve or his rally tolerance on the surface, and while this matchup could look completely different on clay, where Cerundolo is far more dangerous, Mager is well-suited to deal with the Argentinian on a fast hard court.
Pick: Gianluca Mager +105 via BetMGM