Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Prediction, Pick, Odds for Wimbledon Round of 16 (July 5)

The best women's matchup on Sunday pits two four-time Grand Slam winners against each other in the Round of 16.

None of those titles, however, were at Wimbledon, so the stakes are higher for Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka if they want to lift that silverware anytime soon.

Sabalenka just defeated Osaka at Roland Garros this year in straight sets and dominates their head-to-head, but we'll look beyond that to find betting value in this match.

Find my Wimbledon preview and Sabalenka vs Osaka prediction for Sunday below.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Player Prediction

• Sabalenka vs Osaka Pick: Osaka +4.5 Alt Spread (-200)

My Sabalenka vs Osaka best bet is on Osaka to cover the alternate spread at 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.

Sabalenka vs Osaka Odds

Sabalenka vs Osaka Preview, Prediction

By: Tudor Cosma

Aryna Sabalenka Betting Preview

The World No. 1 is playing Wimbledon under immense pressure coming from two directions.

First, if she loses early or if Elena Rybakina performs better than she does, Aryna will lose her top spot. Second, the fact that she hasn’t won a single Grand Slam this season, something that surely bothers her, considering she is the dominant force on the women’s tour.

Unfortunately, Aryna Sabalenka has far too few Grand Slam titles relative to how she has dominated the tour in recent years. She has only four such titles — two at the Australian Open and two at the US Open — all on hard courts. However, it cannot be said that she specializes in that type of surface. In fact, she is quite versatile, excelling on both clay and grass.

At Roland Garros, she reached the final last year, losing to Coco Gauff, and here she made it to the semifinals last season, when she was dramatically defeated 1-2 by Amanda Anisimova. Now she wants to take at least one step further.

Aryna has everything it takes to contend for the trophy. She has one of the best serves in the world — very powerful and very consistent — so she rarely gives up a break. From the baseline, she’s very aggressive and hits decisively, constantly putting pressure on her opponents.

Naomi Osaka Betting Preview

Let’s not forget that Naomi Osaka is also a four-time Grand Slam champion, with two titles at the Australian Open and the US Open.

She was the world No. 1, so she will eventually be inducted into the Hall of Fame, where she deserves to be. Unfortunately, those achievements came seven years ago, which seems like a very long time.
Since then, there have been many changes in her life. She took a break from tennis to focus on her mental health, became a mother, and so her priorities have shifted. She returned to tennis because she loves the sport and loves to compete.

Osaka is no longer the player she once was, but it’s not as if she’s become a mediocre player either. After all, she’s ranked in the world’s top 20 and can still win major tournaments. Including Grand Slams.
Her serve remains among the best in the world; she’s powerful from the baseline, so she’s very hard to dominate physically.

Last season was a good one for her, as she reached the final at the Canadian Open — which she lost to Victoria Mboko — and then the semifinals at the US Open, where she played very solidly but was defeated 1-2 by Anisimova.

Sabalenka vs Osaka Predictions, Betting Analysis

Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite regardless of her opponent, the surface or the tournament. However, recent weeks have revealed a vulnerable side to her, and the 0-6 sets she lost to Diana Shnaider and Jessica Pegula are major red flags.

Osaka has played this grass-court season excellently, losing practically only one set — in the final against Muchova at Bad Homburg.

She defeated Alexandrova, Mertens, and Kasatkina 2-0, and her serve has been working perfectly. For example, in her last two matches here, she conceded only one break point. She won’t be intimidated by her opponent, and I think she’ll win at least one solid set.

Therefore, I believe Osaka won’t lose by more than four games.

Picks: Osaka +4.5 Alt Spread (-200, DraftKings)