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Citi Open Tennis Picks, Predictions: Kenin Will Fall Short in Comeback Match (August 2)

Citi Open Tennis Picks, Predictions: Kenin Will Fall Short in Comeback Match (August 2) article feature image
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Adam Hagy/Getty. Pictured: Sofia Kenin.

  • The Citi Open rolls on with a host of Tuesday matches.
  • David Gertler breaks down a pair of women's matches, including Sofia Kenin's comeback.
  • See who he's getting behind ahead of the slate.

The Citi Open is off to an incredible start and Tuesday’s order of play offers more fascinating matchups.

I’ve found betting value for two matches on Tuesday and provide my best bets and full breakdowns below.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Victoria Azarenka (-244) vs. Dayana Yastremska (+185)

3 p.m. ET

Victoria Azarenka hasn’t played since losing to Jil Teichmann at the French Open, but she will surely be excited to get back onto the hard courts.

Azarenka is 396-141 in her career on hard courts, which includes an 8-5 record this season. While Azarenka has certainly hit some speed bumps on the year, her two Australian Open titles show that she cannot be counted out on hard courts.

Azarenka tries to dominate from the baseline and has a well-placed serve that gets her ahead in points. She’s relentless on offense and plays aggressive tennis from both wings.

The problem for Azarenka in many matches this season is that her rally tolerance is not what it used to be, and she can go through stretches in a match where she’s wild from the baseline.

Dayana Yastremska hasn’t played since Wimbledon, when she fell in the first round to Ana Bogdan.

Yastremska is a solid 98-67 as a professional on hard courts and is 12-8 in 2022. While clay is actually Yastremska’s best surface (in terms of winning percentage), Yastremska is dangerous on hard courts, as well.

She goes on stretches of brilliance where she’s nailing big serves and successfully playing with aggression from the baseline, while at other times, she can be an erratic mess.

The Ukrainian gives her opponents very little rhythm from the baseline because of the short points and aggressive nature of her game.

This will be a fascinating matchup between two huge ball strikers. Both will look to get on top of the baseline and dictate play. Yastremska, while not totally consistent, has the serve and groundstrokes to put a ton of pressure on Azarenka and force her behind the baseline, where she’s much less comfortable.

Yastremska will push Azarenka around at times from the baseline and force the Belarusian to rush on her groundstrokes. She should do this consistently enough to snag a set.

Pick: Yastremska +1.5 Sets (-137 via PointsBet)

Sofia Kenin (-118) vs. Camila Osorio (-114)

4:30 p.m. ET

Sofia Kenin hasn’t played since Indian Wells earlier this season. Kenin has struggled with an injury to her ankle and taken a long time to recover.

The American’s first action since injuring herself occurred in an Atlanta exhibition last week. Kenin looked out of sorts and lacked rally tolerance in her 1-6, 2-6 loss to Coco Gauff.

She won the 2020 Australian Open and has a 146-84 career-record on hard in her career, showcasing how she can play at her peak. However, even before her ankle ailment, Kenin had lost six matches in a row, all on hard courts.

Kenin is not as consistent as she used to be, she doesn’t get enough depth on her groundstrokes and she doesn’t counterpunch nearly as well as she used to.

Add in the fact that now she’s rusty from an injury layoff and this is a tenuous situation for the American.

Camila Osorio has struggled recently, losing five matches in a row (although four came on her worst surface of grass), most recently at Wimbledon via retirement.

While clay is Osorio’s best surface, she still has a 48-32 record as a professional on hard courts. This includes a 6-4 record this season.

Osorio’s game is largely reliant on her movement. The Colombian moves well and is very hard to hit through. She has a heavy forehand and places her groundstrokes perfectly throughout the court. Osorio can also change the pace of play with her excellent variety. However, Osorio can become overpowered at times.

This match will be won from the baseline and I trust Osorio’s baseline game more than Kenin’s at the moment. While it was only an exhibition, Kenin played very poorly in Atlanta, struggling both with her aggression and consistency.

Osorio, with her excellent movement and rally tolerance, is not a great opponent for Kenin in this state. She will outlast Kenin from the baseline and the American’s shot-making is not good enough at the moment to effectively power through Osorio from the baseline.

Pick: Osorio ML (-114 via FanDuel)

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