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Elena Rybakina vs. Petra Martic Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 4)

Elena Rybakina vs. Petra Martic Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 4) article feature image
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Ryan Pierse/Getty. Pictured: Petra Martic.

Rybakina vs. Martic Odds

Rybakina Odds -210
 Martic Odds +165
Over/Under 21.5
Time | TV 8 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

Elena Rybakina has played very well at Wimbledon. Rybakina beat a dangerous Qinwen Zheng 7-6(4), 7-5 to advance to the round of 16.

However, waiting for her in the next round is Petra Martic, who will test Rybakina’s court craft and rally tolerance.

Let’s take a closer look at this round of 16 match.

Rybakina Serving Well

Rybakina served at a very high level in her victory over Zheng. She won 77% of her first-serve points and was only broken twice.

On return, she punished Zheng’s second serve, winning 59% of her second-serve return points.

But, while Rybakina’s return game has been fairly shaky, her serve has been reliable all week. The Kazakh has won over 75% of her first-serve points in every match this week and has only been broken a combined four times.

Rybakina has been clutch in saving break points this week, saving 16-of-20 break points she’s faced on her serve.

While she is 18-7 in her career on grass, she started this grass season 1-2, struggling to find her range from the baseline. However, she’s gotten somewhat better in this regard. In two of Rybakina’s first three matches here, she’s had a positive winner/unforced error ratio.

Rybakina doesn’t need to be ultra-consistent to have success on grass. She plays first-strike tennis, serving big and trying to put her opponents in defensive positions on the court.

Despite this, Ryabkina does not have great touch and can sometimes look out of her element in cat-and-mouse points. She also struggles to get down when an opponent slices the ball and her variety is lacking.

Martic On A Roll

Martic defeated Jessica Pegula 6-2, 7-6(5) to reach the round of 16. The Croat won 85% of her first serves and was broken just once. She also did a good job of limiting Pegula on her first serve, holding the American to under 60% of her first serves won.

She has sustained a high level of play at Wimbledon throughout her wins over Shelby Rogers, Kristina Kucova and Pegula. In every match this week, Martic has won at least 70% of her service points.

Martic is now 32-22 as a professional on grass, but like Rybakina she had struggled on grass coming into Wimbledon.  Martic was 0-2 when she arrived at the All England Club, struggling with the transition from clay. However, Martic has improved infinitely in London.

The Croat has a big first serve, which she can use to take control of points. She also has very good rally tolerance and knows the right times to move forward. And once Martic moves forward, she volleys effectively, having won 43-of-56 net points at this tournament so far.

Martic also has fantastic touch around the court and a biting backhand slice that will stay out of Rybakina’s strike zone.

Betting Value

Neither player has dropped a set so far and both players are 3-0 in tiebreaks this tournament, showing that they’re both playing well and very comfortable in the big moments.

Martic does have the game to make Rybakina uncomfortable. The Kazakh wants to play at big serve, first-strike game. However, Martic is returning first serves very effectively this week and her backhand slice will stay low to the court, which Rybakina will struggle to continue to get low to hit.

In addition, Martic’s touch and the precision of her groundstrokes can get Rybakina off of the baseline and effectively move her around, exposing Rybakina’s mediocre court coverage.

While Martic’s second serve is a concern, she should be able to defend behind it well enough to stave Rybakina off and cover this spread.

Pick:  Martic +3.5 games (-125)

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