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French Open Odds, Preview, Picks: Madison Keys & Danielle Collins Deserved Favorites (May 26)

French Open Odds, Preview, Picks: Madison Keys & Danielle Collins Deserved Favorites (May 26) article feature image
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Tim Clayton-Corbis/Getty. Pictured: Danielle Collins.

  • A trio of Americans will take the court on Thursday at the French Open.
  • Jon Reid breaks down where the value lies in their matches.
  • Read on to see his best bets for the second round.

Looking for Friday’s best bets? Click here!

Off to the top half of the women’s draw we go to wrap up the second round at the French Open.

While not known for their clay court abilities in general, Thursday features a pair of American women that should be able to find a comfortable victory on the red clay courts of Roland Garros.

Let’s delve into which two, and why!

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Danielle Collins (-300) vs. Shelby Rogers (+235)

9 a.m. ET

First up is a matchup featuring not one, but two Americans, in a tilt that should feature some massive ball striking.

Danielle Collins is favored to beat Shelby Rogers, and there’s good reason for it.

While both possess the necessary power to hit through the surface, and each player can serve well, Collins is just the better player. That should set her up for a potential lopsided set or two.

In terms of return of serve, Collins is far superior to her compatriot. She’s far more agile and can move her feet more quickly to get into position to return.

Collins also doesn’t just return effectively to get herself into neutral rallies, she has the ability to be aggressive and seize control of rallies – especially against second serves.

Take a look at the break percentages of the two. Collins leads Rogers in 2022 overall by 15%. On clay over the last 52 weeks? The gulf is 10%.

Another big advantage for Collins is movement. Neither woman is going to blow the other off court, but being able to move around and hit on the run is going to be a difference-maker in this kind of match. Rogers’ foot speed and movement is lacking in a big way compared to Collins.

Finally, Collins is a very redline-like player. When she wins, it’s often by a lot. In her 12 wins this season, she’s covered 4.5 games in eight of them (including against the likes of Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur).

With the matchup advantages in this one, it’s tough to see Rogers being the fifth player to keep this one close.

Pick:  Collins -4.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)

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Madison Keys (-270) vs. Caroline Garcia (+215)

9 a.m. ET

The other American that should be able to position herself one step closer to the second week in Paris is Madison Keys.

Taking on Caroline Garcia – who has played one match since her retirement against Anna Bondar in Miami – is a prime opportunity for Keys to reach the third round for the fourth time in five years.

While it doesn’t seem like clay would be her best surface, Keys has the ability to serve and hit through it. Her record may not be anything to write home about over the last few seasons, but consider who has beaten her in her last five losses: Anhelina Kalinina (underrated clay courter), Maria Sakkari, Belinda Bencic (ended up winning that event), Iga Swiatek and Victoria Azarenka. All players well above Garcia’s level.

There’s also the concern around Garcia being 100% fit. Her lone match since March was against Taylor Townsend in the first round. Townsend recently had a kid so she hasn’t played much tennis and she was cramping up in that match as well.

Garcia’s normal strengths of being able to dictate are neutralized by one of the biggest hitters on tour. Keys’ weakness of being error-prone could also be masked by the fact that Garcia is as erratic as they come herself.

This is another match that should see the favorite win in a relatively comfortable fashion.

Pick: Keys -4.5 games (+112 via PointsBet)

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