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Friday US Open Odds, Predictions: Is Andy Murray Overvalued Against Matteo Berrettini?

Friday US Open Odds, Predictions: Is Andy Murray Overvalued Against Matteo Berrettini? article feature image
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Frey, Al Bello/Getty. Pictured: Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray.

  • Matteo Berrettini is favored to beat Andy Murray at the US Open.
  • Will he be able to deliver on that status?
  • Carmine Carcieri offers his best bet and prediction.

The final Grand Slam of the tennis season is officially heating up with the start of third-round play coming on Friday at the US Open.

While the spotlight will be centered around No. 1-seeded Daniil Medvedev and the always intriguing Nick Kyrgios, here’s two plays I have from the day session around the grounds.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.

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Matteo Berrettini (-195) vs. Andy Murray (+160)

12 p.m. ET

Outside of dropping the opening set to qualifier Emilio Nava in Round 2, Andy Murray has played solid tennis so far in New York. He dispatched No. 24 seed Francisco Cerundolo in straight sets in the first round and cruised against Nava after a shaky start.

However, playing a clay-court specialist on a hard court and facing a 20-year-old qualifier are entirely different circumstances than what he’s about to face on Thursday.

Murray is a future Hall of Famer and a former Grand Slam champ, but his fitness at this stage in his career is an obvious concern. He’s been overvalued at a lot of books throughout the summer, and I believe this is another position where we can take advantage.

Matteo Berrettini is having an interesting summer himself. The Italian won at Queen’s Club and Stuttgart before being forced out of Wimbledon due to COVID.

Since then, he reached a 250 final in Gstaad, but was 0-2 during the hard-court season.

That seems to be in the past, though, as Berrettini has looked much stronger in his first two matches in New York, cruising through Nicolas Jarry in the opening round before edging Hugo Grenier in four sets.

He faced just four break points in the two matches and seemed to be serving much more effectively than he did in Cincinnati and Montreal.

While Berrettini is most comfortable on grass (Elo Ranking of 2), he is an all-around player who ranks in the top 30 on all surfaces.

Berrettini and Murray have faced off three previous times, with the Italian winning the two meetings on grass and the Brit capturing the lone meeting on hard (2019).

Regardless, I like Berrettini to cover the spread in this third-round duel. As I mentioned previously, I think Murray is being overvalued in this one. If Berrettini’s serve is cooking — which it has been so far in this tournament — he will wear down Murray and cover this spread.

Pick: Matteo Berrettini -3.5 games (-115 via DraftKings) | Play to -125

Casper Ruud (-190) vs. Tommy Paul (+155)

12:15 p.m. ET

I’m going back to a Tommy Paul match for the third time in this tournament.

After winning two five-setters against Bernabe Zapata Miralles and Sebastian Korda, the American will go head-to-head with No. 5 seed Casper Ruud.

I’m expecting this to be another nail-biter, meaning the total of 38.5 is the play.

If we look at the previous meetings between Paul and Ruud, all three matches went the distance. Ruud defeated Paul twice in Grand Slams (2021 Australian Open, 2020 Roland Garros), but both finished at 39 total games.

I’ve highlighted the Paul angle all week, as the American is having a career-year and doesn’t look like he’s slowing down any time soon. He seems comfortable playing on these fast courts, and has the fitness to overcome the fact that he’s played two five-set matches already.

Meanwhile, Ruud defeated Kyle Edmund in three sets in his opening-round clash before coming back to advance past Tim van Rijthoven in a match that was even closer than the score line indicated.

Ruud is lethal on clay, but he’s picked up his game on hard courts over the past two years, winning a title in San Diego in 2021 and reaching the semifinals at Montreal last month. He also owns an Elo Ranking of 12 on the surface.

At this particular tournament, however, Ruud has never made it past the third round.

While Ruud has his sights set on his first fourth-round appearance in New York, it won’t be an easy task to achieve against a red-hot American who will have the crowd behind him on Louis Armstrong.

Expect a close match, but don’t play this any higher than 38.5.

Pick: Over 38.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

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