How to Bet Stan Wawrinka vs. Corentin Moutet & JJ Wolf vs. Roberto Bautista Agut (August 29)
Dylan Buell/Getty. Pictured: Stan Wawrinka.
- Round 1 of the US Open is here.
- Kenny Ducey breaks down two first round matches, including one with former champion Stan Wawrinka.
- Read on for his best bets and analysis.
There’s arguably no better seat at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on Monday than one at Court 5, where upstart JJ Wolf will battle Roberto Bautista Agut to begin the day, and where Stan Wawrinka will follow the two.
If you’re parking yourself there, or devoting a monitor to a live stream of the court, I’ve got two ways to bet these exciting showdowns.
Let’s jump into the US Open matches.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Roberto Bautista Agut (-425) vs. JJ Wolf (+320)
11 a.m. ET
This is not an unfamiliar situation for Wolf, a young American with an incredibly exciting game.
Just five months ago, the 23-year-old met Bautista Agut at Indian Wells, where he battled one of the world’s best baseliners and defenders in an epic three-set encounter.
After dropping the first set, he broke the Spaniard late and served for the match. It was there that nerves kicked in, and after watching two match points come and go Wolf never quite recovered, losing in a deciding set tiebreak.
Wolf is a player very much in the ascendancy here at the US Open, finding his game once again in 2022 after injuries derailed his momentum years back. While he’s lost three straight matches, Wolf did have a great showing in Washington, D.C. just a few weeks ago with a run to the quarterfinals, and these conditions at the US Open should be to his liking.
Not only will Wolf have some incredible crowd support in the U.S., he’ll also get to hit on one of the faster hard courts around. Combining these slick surfaces with his incredible power off the ground and his big serve could be too much for Bautista Agut to handle.
While the Spaniard has won eight of his last 10 matches, his form isn’t quite what it would seem. He won a clay-court tournament in Kitzbuhel, which doesn’t tell us much about how he’s going to fare on these fast courts.
Then, he took out Marcos Giron in Montreal and trailed Jenson Brooksby in the second round before Brooksby fell and hurt himself, losing the match in short order from there.
He would go on to beat Francisco Cerundolo in Cincinnati thanks to a barrage of errors in the third set and then Giron again.
The wins are part fool’s gold, and also not exactly a good predictor of success on a fast hardcourt. It’s also worth noting that in Bautista Agut’s two losses he played one good, tight set with Casper Ruud then got destroyed in the other four sets.
The Spaniard has won just four matches in his last four trips to the US Open and he shouldn’t be counted on here against a player who can hit through him and who looks to be the more talented at this point in RBA’s career.
Picks: Wolf +5.5 games (+100) | Wolf ML (+340 via FanDuel) 0.5 Units
Corentin Moutet (-130) vs. Stan Wawrinka (+110)
1 p.m. ET
Next up on court is Wawrinka and Corentin Moutet, which promises to be an exciting encounter.
On the one hand, we have a fan favorite who’s won this tournament before and always produces highlights with his exciting game. On the other, we have an eccentric young player from France who is as entertaining as he is crafty on the court.
I think oddsmakers are a bit off on this line. Moutet has not only defeated Wawrinka both times they’ve met — including once on a hardcourt — he’s in far better form than the former US Open champ.
Yes, Moutet is a Lucky Loser here after losing to Yibing Wu in qualifying, but that doesn’t really tell the entire story of how he’s playing at the moment. Moutet erased a double-break in the first set before eventually falling in the tiebreak, and he was able to come up with multiple breaks in the second before losing.
Moutet played some excellent defense throughout, and despite the loss to a talented young player he’s won five of his last seven. That’s much better than Wawrinka can say; he’s lost six in a row with just one win since May 11th.
Wawrinka looked to be in horrible form against Andy Murray the last time we saw him in Cincinnati, as errors poured out of his racquet. Against an incredible defender like Moutet, who will get a ton of balls back into court, Wawrinka should falter under the pressure and error his way to a loss.
Public money on a big name and a defending champion is likely the reason for this line being as tight as it is, but considering the head-to-head here and the type of tennis Moutet is playing, it’s hard to back the aging Swiss.
Pick: Moutet ML (-130 via BetMGM)