Karolina Muchova vs Sorana Cirstea US Open Odds, Pick | Expert Preview

Muchova vs Cirstea Odds

Karolina Muchova survived a tough test against Xinyu Wang, beating Wang 6-3, 5-7, 6-1 to reach the US Open quarterfinals.

But how will Muchova fare against Sorana Cirstea, who is blossoming right now in Flushing Meadows.

Read on for my full Karolina Muchova vs Sorana Cirstea US Open preview.

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Muchova Continues to Pile Up Wins

Muchova won 65% of her first serves against Wang but only 39% of her second serves, getting broken six times. In addition, the Czech won 57% of her return points, breaking nine times in 14 return games.

This was the first set of the tournament that Muchova lost, having won her first seven sets of the US Open. Ultimately, Muchova had too many weapons for Wang and consistently put the ball in areas of the court that took Wang out of her comfort zone.

Muchova has an astonishing 37-12 overall record in 2023, including a 27-8 record on hard courts. During the summer hard-court swing, specifically, the Czech has gone 12-3, with a final at WTA Cincinnati. For her career, Muchova is a strong 139-65 on the surface.

She hits her spots on serve and mixes up serves well to keep her opponents guessing. And from the baseline, Muchova has easy power and can hit into small targets. She's particularly potent with her forehand, but can still play offense with her backhand when needed.

Something underrated about Muchova's game is her anticipation and defensive skills. Muchova moves well, gliding around the court and recovering effectively when pushed around from the baseline. And the Czech can turn defense into offense very quickly, especially given her excellent passing shots.

Muchova's variety is a key aspect of her game. She has a successful transition game and hits crisp volleys at the net. The Czech's touch is terrific, she can hit with nasty angles and her backhand slice stays low to the court, making it very difficult to attack.

The problem for Muchova is that she has so many weapons that her shot selection can suffer, as she sometimes pulls the wrong tool out of her tool bag.

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Cirstea Continues Dream Run

Cirstea defeated Belinda Bencic 6-3, 6-3 in the round of 16. She won 57% of her service points, getting broken three times. The Romanian also won 59% of her return points, including 69% of her second-serve returns and breaking on six occasions.

She balanced offense and defense well, absorbing Bencic's power while not giving up much court positioning. And the Romanian could rip groundstrokes – but especially forehands – into the openings that Bencic gave her.

Cirstea is shining on an American hard court, just like she did during her run to the Miami semifinals earlier this season. She has dropped just one set this tournament, with that coming in her impressive victory over World No. 4 Elena Rybakina.

The Romanian is 30-18 on the year overall with a 20-11 record on hard courts. During the summer hard-court swing, Cirstea is 7-3, although she was just 3-3 entering this event. Cirstea does have a solid 303-237 record as a professional.

She has excellent court positioning and doesn't let opponents push her around very much. She has good anticipation and defensive skills, allowing her to neutralize her opponents' power.

However, while Cirstea can fend off big hitters, the Romanian is more comfortable playing offense. She has a fairly good first serve, although her forehand is her best weapon. She doesn't have overwhelming pace, but is able to dictate play from her forehand wing and put her opponents on the defensive.

On the flip side, Cirstea is not the most dynamic athlete, and her variety can become clunky at times and her backhand is prone to breaking down.

Muchova vs Cirstea Pick

Muchova has a much more complete and dynamic game in comparison to Cirstea. The Czech's attacking game is more reliable, as Muchova can effectively attack with her serve from the ground and moving forward.

On the other hand, Cirstea's backhand can leak errors, especially when she's trying to attack, and she's not nearly as comfortable moving forward as Muchova is.

Muchova does a great job of keeping the ball out of her opponents' strike zones. That should also be the case against Cirstea, as she should make it very difficult for the Romanian to successfully initiate her attacking play.

And given Cirstea's lack of variety and court craft, Muchova should have the clear edge in cat and mouse points.

Finally, Muchova's overall Elo rating is 150.5 points higher than Cirstea's and her hard-court Elo is 127.7 points above the Romanian's.

Pick: Muchova -2.5 games (-115)