Marta Kostyuk and Jasmine Paolini square off in the Wimbledon quarterfinals on Wednesday.
In a matchup featuring very contrasting styles, Kostyuk enters as the favorite to advance to her first ever semifinal in London.
Find my Wimbledon preview and Kostyuk vs Paolini prediction for Wednesday below.
Marta Kostyuk vs Jasmine Paolini Player Prediction
- Kostyuk vs Paolini Picks: Single Game Parlay (+106) — Kostyuk ML & Kostyuk 3+ Aces
My Kostyuk vs Paolini best bet is on a single-game parlay that consists of Kostyuk winning straight up and her hitting three-plus aces. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Wimbledon odds page.
Kostyuk vs Paolini Odds
| Marta Kostyuk Odds | -272 |
| Jasmine Paolini Odds | +215 |
| Spread | Kostyuk -3.5 (-150), Paolini +3.5 (+100) |
| Over/Under | 21.5 (-120o / -120u) |
| Kostyuk-Paolini H2H | 1-2 |
| Time | How to Watch | Wednesday, Approx. 8:30 a.m. ET | ESPN Unlmtd |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Kostyuk vs Paolini Preview, Prediction
Marta Kostyuk Betting Preview
It's been quite a run for 23-year-old Kostyuk, who's failed to advance past the third round of Wimbledon in her previous appearances.
The Ukrainian has looked quite impressive in each of her victories in London and seems to have found a great rhythm on the slick ryegrass surface conditions.
Kostyuk relies heavily on an aggressive baseline game to which she boasts a heavy top-spin forehand and flat ground-strokes built for shortening points. She's renowned for taking her opponents out of their comfort zone, thus forcing them to commit unforced errors.
She's a highly-active, all-court aggressor with exceptional footwork, which in turn enables her to get to any ball on return. She also boasts tremendous net play, which further feeds into her overall game plan to control rallies.
The Ukrainian has impressive athleticism and agility, which forces her opponents to play at her speed — as opposed to dictating rallies from beyond the baseline.
Though Kostyuk wasn't praised for her grass court-prowess early-on in her career, her aggressive all-court game — paired with a huge serve and stellar athleticism — is a skillset that's helped her adjust nicely to this quick surface.
Jasmine Paolini Betting Preview
Paolini made a run to the Wimbledon final in 2024 (while I was holding 90/1 futures ticket), but she fell short to Barbora Krejcikova. She's now making her second run at a Wimbledon title.
Though Paolini implements an aggressive style of play, she prefers to hold the baseline and dictate rallies at her own pace. Like Kostyuk, she boasts exceptional all-court coverage thanks to her elite quickness and agility.
While Kostyuk has more of a straightforward aggressive approach, the 30-year-old Italian has a far more versatile arsenal, largely due to her unpredictable shotmaking thanks to her short stature.
Though most opponents expect Paolini to be more of a finesse hitter, she has an elite forehand. That forehand has been effective via her open-stance hitting and her ability to generate surprising topspin with a lower-body rotation that results in a far greater ball speed.
Paolini's biggest edge is undoubtedly her unpredictability in regard to what approach she takes to each point.
While the Italian is quite comfortable hugging the baseline and dictating rallies, Paolini can also quickly transition into her more aggressive approach, given her court coverage and pacing.
Paolini also has a flat two-handed backhand, further adding to her far less predictive style.
Kostyuk vs Paolini Predictions, Betting Analysis
Kostyuk’s path to victory lies in her ability to dictate the pace of play by thriving on her first serve while avoiding longer rallies that play into Paolini’s game plan.
The Italian may have a very tough time adjusting to the biggest server she's faced in this tournament. She'll need to use her exceptional all-court quickness to her advantage by dictating longer rallies on the baseline.
Paolini will definitely need to absorb Kostyuk’s overpowering aggression, and she'll need to capitalize on Kostyuk's second serve.
While I'm a big fan of Paolini, she's yet to face a player of Kostyuk’s power and heavy groundstroke prowess. I expect Kostyuk to find success early with her first serve and to effectively use her aggressive approach to shorten points.
This is far more of an unorthodox betting stance to my preference, but in this case, I favor backing a single game parlay consisting of Kostyuk to win the match and her to record at least three aces.
You can play my Wimbledon SGP at a solid +107 price tag on DraftKings.
Picks: Single Game Parlay (+106) — Kostyuk ML & Kostyuk Over 3+ Aces
