An all-Italian duel will take place in the second French Open semifinal as Matteo Arnaldi will face Flavio Cobolli for a spot in Sunday's men's final.
Arnaldi is well-rested after Matteo Berrettini retired in the second set of their quarterfinal clash.
Find my French Open preview and Arnaldi vs Cobolli prediction for Friday below.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Player Prediction
- Arnaldi vs Cobolli Pick: Flavio Cobolli -1.5 Game Spread | Cobolli to Serve More Aces (-163 @ bet365)
My Arnaldi vs Cobolli best bet is on Cobolli to cover the game spread and for him to serve more aces than Arnaldi. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live French Open odds page.
Arnaldi vs Cobolli Odds
| Matteo Arnaldi Odds | +202 |
| Flavio Cobolli Odds | -254 |
| Spread | Arnaldi +1.5 (+100), Cobolli -1.5 (-125) |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-115o / -115u) |
| Arnaldi-Cobolli H2H | 1-1 |
| Time | How to Watch | Friday, 1 p.m. ET | TNT, MAX, truTV |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Arnaldi vs Cobolli Preview, Prediction
Matteo Arnaldi Betting Preview
Arnaldi is a 25-year-old Italian who's ranked 104th in the ATP rankings.
This tournament has been incredible for him, as he's a player who started this tournament outside the world's top 100. Now he'll climb the rankings a lot, and I think he'll stabilize somewhere in the ATP top 50.
I don't see him fighting for a position in the top 10 because he has many vulnerabilities, but we won't see him ranked so low for at least 12 months.
Arnaldi is a solid ATP player. However, in important tournaments he was practically invisible, which is why his performance at Roland Garros surprises so much.
This run has come with a lot of luck, but also with a lot of work and self-confidence. The luck was the elimination of Jannik Sinner because in a direct match, he didn't have much of a chance.
One can also talk about luck in the fourth-round match with Frances Tiafoe, when Arnaldi was trailing 2-1 in sets and 4-1 in the fourth and had to recover two breaks. However, his mental strength should be appreciated in that spot.
There was also a bit of luck in the quarters because Berrettini — who started as a fairly big favorite — got injured. Even so, with a relatively short match, Arnaldi remains the player who spent the most time on the court before a Grand Slam semifinal (almost 20 hours). It's a record that no one wants because it means torment.
However, it also means performance. I think Arnaldi will recover quite well because his quarterfinal match was short. However, these 20 hours can be noticed on Friday if the match is prolonged.
Last season was average for Arnaldi. He had a huge victory against Novak Djokovic in Madrid, but the Serbian didn't focus very much on that tournament. Otherwise, he had a third-round finish at Wimbledon and nothing notable in other major tournaments.
The new season has been weak again so far, hence the fact that Arnaldi was no longer in the world's top 100. He earned a trophy at the Challenger in Cagliari and posted a relatively solid result in Rome (Round 3).
In Paris, he's having the best tournament of his career. He struggled terribly against Raphael Collignon and went five sets with Tiafoe, but the results are positive.
It remains to be seen how much energy he'll have left because on Friday, it's almost impossible to think that he'll prevail 3-0.
Flavio Cobolli Betting Preview
Cobolli is a 24-year-old Italian who's ranked 14th in the ATP.
He'll debut in the ATP top 10 on Monday, a position where he deserves to be. I've heard experts say that Cobolli won't leave that elite anytime soon, and they may be right.
Even if he hasn't been a central figure on the circuit or a very popular, media-focused athlete, the results are on his side, and the future could look very good.
A final here, or especially a trophy, would be a huge step that he could build on. It'll be extremely difficult in the future to repeat his performance, when Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are healthy and in the competition, but he could become a regular in the final stages.
He still needs to work on his consistency because there are periods in the year when he simply disappears, being eliminated in the early rounds. Cobolli has a good serve with a lot of kick, but he also has a very aggressive and powerful forehand, although he doesn't have a very wide arm movement.
He generates force, he's very disciplined in his tactics, and at this tournament, he clearly dominated all his opponents. Unlike his opponent, who struggled match-by-match and spent about 20 hours on the court, Cobolli lost only two sets in the whole competition while being extremely efficient.
He also had a very easy draw, comparable to that of 250 tournaments. However, it's to his credit that he was so consistent match-by-match. Last season brought him two trophies, both on clay: in Bucharest and in Hamburg.
However, he's versatile and good on other surfaces, as well. For example, at Wimbledon, he reached the quarterfinals, where he seriously tormented Djokovic.
This season, he has a trophy on a hard court in Acapulco, a final in Munich and a quarterfinal in Madrid.
In Paris, he's been dominant; he's only dropped two sets. He played a long, 3-hour and 30-minute match in the quarterfinals against Felix Auger-Aliassime, but even so, he'll be the fresher player in this match.
Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Predictions, Betting Analysis
Arnaldi reached this stage with a lot of struggle, but also with a lot of luck. He played five dramatic sets with Collignon, came back from 1-4 in the fourth set against Tiafoe and then took advantage of Berrettini's retirement.
He stayed on the court for almost 20 hours, which is a record (the most time spent on the court in history before a Grand Slam semifinal). I don't think he'll be exhausted, but he won't be at 100% of his physical capacity either.
In addition, his game showed many flaws, especially on serve. Versus Berrettini, despite him having physical problems, Arnaldi allowed three breaks in a set and a half. Cobolli has only given up two sets the whole tournament, and on Monday, he'll debut in the ATP top 10.
He's been excellent, especially on serve, where he's lost a maximum of three breaks per match. He'll be more rested, and I think he's the more tactically disciplined player. He'll win this match and cover the game spread.
Meanwhile, Arnaldi hasn't impressed at all on serve in this tournament. He served many aces against Tiafoe and Collignon, but those matches were extremely long. In the shorter matches, he served only four aces versus Stefanos Tsitsipas and one against Berrettini.
Cobolli was much more stable on serve. Against Auger-Aliassime, he had a positive ace ratio (8-7), something that's extremely difficult to achieve in the company of Felix. Versus Learner Tien, the ratio was 7-3. I expect Cobolli to serve more aces than his opponent again on Friday.
Pick: Flavio Cobolli -1.5 Game Spread | Cobolli to Serve More Aces (-163 @ bet365)
