Who would've guessed this would be one of the French Open quarterfinal matchups?
Two Italians that were previously much higher in the rankings — Matteo Berrettini and Matteo Arnaldi — meet with a trip to the Roland Garros semifinals on the line.
Find my French Open preview and Berrettini vs Arnaldi prediction for Wednesday below.
Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Player Prediction
- Berrettini vs Arnaldi Pick: Berrettini ML -188
My Berrettini vs Arnaldi best bet is on Berrettini to win straight up. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live French Open odds page.
Berrettini vs Arnaldi Odds
| Matteo Berrettini Odds | -188 |
| Matteo Arnaldi Odds | +153 |
| Spread | Berrettini -1.5 (-115), Arnaldi +1.5 (-125) |
| Over/Under | 38.5 (-115o / -130u) |
| Berrettini-Arnaldi H2H | 0-0 |
| Time | How to Watch | Wednesday, 2:15 p.m. ET | TNT, MAX, truTV |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Berrettini vs Arnaldi Preview, Prediction
Matteo Berrettini Betting Preview
Berrettini is a 30-year-old Italian who's ranked 105th in the world.
His current ranking has no relevance, though, as he's a very valuable and well-known athlete in world tennis. He was up to fifth in the world at one point, his career-high, and he's had very good results in Grand Slams in the past, namely making the final at Wimbledon in 2021 and the semifinals at the US Open in 2019.
He also reached the semifinals at the Australian Open in 2022, so he knows how to manage the second week in these big events.
On the other hand, at Roland Garros, he's been absent for the last four years. The main reason was injuries and the other was that he wasn't in the world's top 100 (which was a direct consequence of those said injuries).
The good part is that he'll climb to at least 54th in the world starting Monday — and even higher, if he prevails on Wednesday.
Let's hope the health problems are over because Berrettini deserves this, and I think he deserves to win a Grand Slam. His best chances are at Wimbledon, as experts say he's warming up in Paris for the London tournament, where he'll be among the top five favorites.
But who says Berrettini isn't aiming for a title here, too? After all, he's the only one in this half of the draw who has a Grand Slam final on his resume. In a potential semifinal with Felix Auger-Aliassime or Flavio Cobolli, he'll start with a 50% chance.
His main weapon is the serve, but he also has a devastating forehand. He's called "The Hammer" because of these shots, both of which are difficult to return. He's strong and has an impressive physique, but doubts remain about injuries.
However, at Roland Garros, in long and tough matches, he's looked physically fit.
Last season was modest, with quarterfinal berths in Dubai, Miami and Vienna. He missed the entire North American hard season, including the US Open, due to health problems.
The new season hasn't brought him much satisfaction so far (well, at least before this tourney). For example, if we talk only about clay, he was defeated in the first round by Dino Prizmic in Madrid. In Rome, he lost again in the first round to Alexei Popyrin.
He also participated in a Challenger in Valencia, where he was defeated 0-2 by Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
So, honestly, no one expected these results in Paris.
In the early rounds, he had some hiccups, especially with Francisco Comesana, whom he defeated in an epic match (17-15 in the tiebreaker of the decisive set). In the fourth round, against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, he looked tired, but he was lucky in two sets and won 3-0.
This result should help him a lot, as he should now be almost completely restored physically.
Matteo Arnaldi Betting Preview
Arnaldi is a 25-year-old Italian who's ranked 104th in the ATP rankings.
He's coming off an incredible win; he was probably the only one who still believed in the outcome. He was down two sets to one against Frances Tiafoe, and in the fourth set, he had to recover down two breaks.
Moreover, the score was 1-4, 15-40, and Arnaldi somehow turned the tide of the match, sending it to the decider, where he was slightly more effective than Tiafoe.
The victory is important physically, but the match was an exhausting one and finished late at night.
For Arnaldi, making a Grand Slam quarterfinal is an important performance. It's the first of his career and will propel him up the rankings again.
The fact that he was outside the world's top 100 was more of an unfortunate coincidence anyway. He's talented, he was ranked 30th in the world in the past and in the future, I expect him to stabilize somewhere around position 50.
He's still young and hasn't reached that age of maturity in terms of sports, so he can achieve many positive results in the future, some built on the foundation of this Grand Slam.
Arnaldi isn't tall, but he's strong. That's why he plays well on hard courts. It doesn't mean that he doesn't like clay — after all, it's the surface that he grew up playing on.
Last season was average, with a quarterfinal appearance in Madrid, where he defeated Novak Djokovic in one of the biggest victories of his career. He had a quarterfinal berth in Geneva and a Round 3 mark at Wimbledon, but he had a weak second half of the year.
The new season has again been quite modest up to this point. For example, in Indian Wells, he lost 0-6 1-6 to Mackenzie McDonald. On clay, he was clearly defeated by Cristian Garin in Monte Carlo, he lost to Dusan Lajovic in the first round in Madrid and dropped one to Rafael Jodar in Rome.
However, his form was superior to the results. He also won a clay Challenger tournament in Cagliari, which helped him a lot in terms of self-confidence.
At Roland Garros this year, Arnaldi has been generally solid. He defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas 3-1, an important victory, even if the Greek is no longer the player he was in the past.
However, Arnaldi is coming off two exhausting matches, both five-setters. He spent five hours and three minutes on the court with Raphael Collignon and then five hours and 30 minutes with Tiafoe, a match that ended after midnight.
I don't think he'll be able to fully recover from these matches.
Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Predictions, Betting Analysis
Berrettini came into this event in poor form after a failed start to the year. However, in the first four matches, he looked quite good, even if he struggled terribly with Comesana in the third round.
That match was exhausting, and that was evident in the fourth round against Cerundolo when Berrettini wasn't completely recovered physically.
Even so, he won 3-0, a success that helps him a lot moving forward. He'll be much more rested on Wednesday, and I think his game will look better. His serve has worked all tournament, as he's won at least 79% of his first serves.
Arnaldi is also having a tournament that far exceeds expectations. However, he has a big problem: the last two matches he spent over 10 hours and 30 minutes on the court.
The match vs. Tiafoe was dramatic; Arnaldi recovered two breaks in the fourth set, and in the fifth set, he was a little stronger physically and mentally.
However, the match ended very late at night, and he won't have much time to rest and recover. I don't think that Arnaldi will be at 100% physically, so I'll take the other Matteo.
Pick: Berrettini ML -188
