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Novak Djokovic vs. Nick Kyrgios Wimbledon Final Predictions: Expect Lengthy Affair

Novak Djokovic vs. Nick Kyrgios Wimbledon Final Predictions: Expect Lengthy Affair article feature image
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Frey/Getty. Pictured: Nick Kyrgios.

  • Novak Djokovic is favored to take home his fourth consecutive Wimbledon crown.
  • He squares off with Nick Kyrgios in Sunday's final.
  • Read on for our analysis and best bets on the final day of the Championships.

Djokovic vs. Kyrgios Odds

Djokovic Odds -400
Kyrgios Odds +310
Over/Under 38.5 
Time 9 a.m. ET, Sunday | ESPN
Odds via FanDuel. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here.

The final that many have been waiting for has arrived at Wimbledon.

Novak Djokovic, a 20-time Grand Slam champion and the three-time defending Wimbledon champion, will take on one of the most entertaining and controversial figures in the sport, Nick Kyrgios.

It’s been a wild ride for Djokovic in 2022. After declining to get the COVID vaccine, he was initially given a special exemption to play in the Australian Open.

The Australian government then backtracked on their decision, creating a wild scene where Djokovic was detained for days before being denied entry into the country.

Date Djokovic Title Odds Kyrgios Title Odds
7/15/2021 +100 +3300
4/4/2022 +120 +1600
Pre-Round 1 -120 +2500
Now -475 +345

He wasn’t able to compete in a number of events this year because of his decision to not get the COVID vaccine and he’ll likely miss out on the US Open as well.

That means Wimbledon is his last chance to secure a Slam title this season, unless the American government changes its rules.

For Kyrgios, his entire career has been a wild ride. The Australian burst onto the scene in 2014 when he defeated Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon and the supremely talented player has dealt with controversy ever since.

Nevertheless, we’ve seen a renewed focus and determination from Kyrgios this year and it’s allowed him to play the best tennis of his life.

We learned during the Championships that Kyrgios is facing assault allegations in his home town, but for now he has the biggest sporting opportunity of his life.

Ahead of one of the most anticipated Slam finals in recent years, see how our experts are finding value.

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Betting Value

Kenny Ducey: This market has been downright insane. We saw Kyrgios open up at +380 at some books before settling down around +300.

His odds to win a set opened at -150 for some books and now the cheapest price on that line is -170. The market has taken a clear side and I have to agree with it. I see plenty of value in taking Kyrgios to win this match because he has far better odds to win this match than the 24.4% implied probability he’s being given.

That’s not where I’m seeing the most value, though. I think Kyrgios will take a set in this match given just about every single Djokovic match at The Championships has featured a lapse in concentration.

Djokovic has dropped the first set in each of his past two matches and in two of the four prior to that he dropped the second. Clean wins have been hard to come by here and that’s hardly an anomaly.

Djokovic dropped all three sets in last year’s US Open final. He dropped the first to Matteo Berrettini in last year’s Wimbledon final, the first two at Roland Garros to Stefanos Tsitsipas and nearly dropped the first to Daniil Medvedev in Australia. Since the 2019 Australian Open, Djokovic has competed in 10 Grand Slams and been to the final in seven. He’s won five of them and just once has he won in straight sets.

I’d expect drama in this one. Kyrgios has never dropped a set to Djokovic in two meetings and while that’s not exactly a predictor of this one, it will allow the Aussie to come in brimming with confidence and with the belief he can win.

That belief is very important in beating the greats of the game.

Kyrgios also has the ideal skill set to match up with Djokovic. As we saw with Jannik Sinner just a few matches ago, if you can hit through Djokovic with sheer power, you can beat him. The problem lies in sustaining that power.

While Kyrgios may not end up winning, he will at least earn a set. He has a downright massive game on grass with a reliable, repeatable and near-unplayable serve.

Caesars is hanging a short line on both players to win a set, which I think is the move if you missed out on the early Kyrgios +2.5 sets odds. It’s hard to see him getting shut out and it’s even harder to see Djokovic getting shut out.

Pick: Both players to win a set (-130 via Caesars)

Luke Holmberg: Kyrgios has played phenomenal tennis to arrive here, but he has also had a relatively lucky path.

He avoided potential matchups with Berrettini and Nadal due to sheer luck, so he has faced less trouble than he would have otherwise expected.

This grass suits both players tremendously, but we will see a big disparity in play styles. One of the best servers on tour will go up against the best returner and the offensive versus defensive dynamic will be fascinating.

Kyrgios has looked more determined and focused than ever in this tournament and there is no question that will be the case in the final.

He has fought through two five-set matches and after receiving a walkover in the semifinals, his often-questioned fitness should be less of a problem.

Despite how talented Kyrgios is and how shaky Djokovic has looked at points throughout the tournament, Djokovic is simply the better player. If Kyrgios outlasts Djokovic in his first Slam final, it would be a shocker.

Kyrgios definitely has the talent to push the three-time defending champion, but I do not see him taking home the trophy. Expect Djokovic to inch back within one Slam title of Nadal’s record, but not with ease.

Pick: Novak Djokovic wins + both players win a set (+116 via FanDuel)

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