Tennis Odds, Predictions: Trust Goffin to Hit Through Simon at ATP Metz (September 20)
Laurie Dieffembacq/Getty. Pictured: David Goffin.
ATP Metz is off to an incredible start and Tuesday’s matches are sure to be exciting, as well!
Two matches on Tuesday’s order of play have value that we can exploit.
Read below for my analysis and best bets.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
Arthur Rinderknech (-182) vs. Jaume Munar (+141)
9 a.m. ET
Arthur Rinderknech made the final of the Vancouver Challenger and the second round of the US Open in his last two events. The Frenchman defeated solid players such as Elias Ymer, Ricardas Berankis and Vasek Pospisil during Vancouver alone. In New York, Rinderknech beat the dangerous Quentin Halys before falling to No. 1 seed Daniil Medvedev in the second round.
Rinderknech is now 19-11 for the season on hard courts and 146-80 on hard in his career. He has a massive first serve and plays aggressive tennis from both wings from the baseline, although he’s most comfortable attacking with his forehand.
However, Rinderknech plays lower-margin tennis, which can lead to batches of unforced errors.
Jaume Munar will be looking to improve after a disappointing four-set defeat to Roberto Carballes Baena at the US Open. Munar looked underpowered, only winning 51% of his service points. Even Munar’s reliable return game didn’t show up, as the Spaniard won just 36% of his return points. Given that Carballes Baena is not a hard-court warrior himself, this was a concerning result.
While Munar is 12-8 in 2022 on hard courts, he’s just 66-65 as a professional on the surface. He is most comfortable on clay, where he has a 265-136 career-record. This is because Munar does not produce power easily and his ball can sit up in the court on hard. The Spaniard’s serve also doesn’t make much of an impact and he can be overpowered on quicker surfaces.
Indoor hard courts suit Rinderknech’s game much more than Munar’s. The Frenchman has the bigger serve of the two and has a much more aggressive game, which will be rewarded on the surface.
Rinderknech will get more free points on his serve, won’t allow Munar to get into a rhythm from the baseline and will cut off his weaker groundstrokes at the net. His game style on this surface will not allow Munar to drag him into longer rallies that suit the Spaniard’s game.
Pick: Rinderknech -1.5 Games (-143 via PointsBet)
David Goffin (-290) vs. Gilles Simon (+220)
12 p.m. ET
Goffin won over two-thirds of his first-serve points and won over 50% of his second-serve return points in the victories over Otte and Bonzi. The Belgian hit a combined 63 winners versus 40 unforced errors across those two matches.
While Goffin is just 12-16 on hard courts this season, he is 339-194 in his career on hard and his form is trending upwards. Goffin is clean ball striker, playing with controlled aggression and maintaining control of the baseline. He also moves around the court well and hits into small targets.
Gilles Simon fell 6-4, 3-6, 2-6 to Dominic Thiem on the indoor hard courts of Rennes last week. Simon won just 41% of his second serves and was broken four times. On return, Simon won 32% of his return points and failed to generate a break point in last nine return games.
While Simon is 13-13 on hard courts in 2022, he is 439-306 as a professional on the surface. However, Simon is visibly slowing down. Historically, the Frenchman’s game is based on his fitness and consistent depth, but his fitness and the placement of his groundstrokes are not what they used to be.
Goffin will match Simon’s consistency while also having the offensive capabilities to hit through Simon, as the Belgian showcased from the 63 winners in his past two matches.
He will also be able to take advantage of Simon’s weaker second serve and succeed on return. Simon has been broken 22 times in his last four matches (11 sets) and this is not a winning formula against a player of Goffin’s caliber.
Pick: Simon to NOT Win a Set (+100 via FanDuel)