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Thursday Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Predictions: Fade Harmony Tan After Win Over Serena Williams (June 30)

Thursday Wimbledon Odds, Picks, Predictions: Fade Harmony Tan After Win Over Serena Williams (June 30) article feature image
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Clive Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Harmony Tan.

With the second round set to wrap up on Thursday, the top half of the women’s draw takes center stage at the All England Club.

Let’s have a look at a pair of matches that feature favorites with a great chance to advance to the third round.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Sara Sorribes Tormo (-295) vs. Harmony Tan (+230)

8 a.m. ET

There were concerns about whether Sara Sorribes Tormo was physically ready for Wimbledon after playing just two matches since returning from an injury absence. Those were alleviated after she thrashed American Christina McHale in the first round.

With a very defensive game and generally playing with heavy topspin, it never seemed like the grass season was the optimal spot on the calendar for Sorribes Tormo to thrive.

Yet in the last few seasons, she’s turned some heads, posting a respectable 16-9 record. That includes a tuneup semifinal & pushing grass wizard Angelique Kerber to three sets last year.

Considering her style, she’s not bothered by the slice and dice variety-centric game employed by Harmony Tan, and as we saw last round with McHale, Sorribes Tormo is almost never beaten by fellow soft ball strikers.

Tan needed a grueling three setter against a returning and awkwardly-moving Serena Williams, so  her form does not inspire much confidence.

Factor in the Elo rating advantage for the Spaniard (over 135 points on grass) and hold plus break percentages over the last 52 weeks (nearly 8%) and I’m siding with the more experienced player to get this one done quickly.

Pick:  Sorribes Tormo -4.5 games (-105 via DraftKings)

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Magdalena Frech (-190) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (+155)

11:30 a.m. ET

Another favorite with a strong stylistic matchup edge is Magdalena Frech. After a poor start to the grass season in Nottingham, Frech has played some pretty strong tennis outside of a straight sets loss to Garbine Muguruza.

With a decent first serve that plays up in pace on the quick courts, and a consistent game from the baseline centered around an incredible backhand slice and consistent, accurate forehand, one can see how she’s managed an impressive 29-17 career record to this point on the surface.

After shocking the eminently-powerful Camila Giorgi in the opening round, Frech now gets another player who’s game is predicated around big hitting.

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova is just as erratic as Giorgi, without nearly as much power and not liking the lower bounces of grass courts at all.

That isn’t going to go over well against the Pole, whose aforementioned slicing abilities are going to frustrate her.

Including her first-round victory, Schmiedlova has won just three matches on grass since 2015. The other two? In 2015 against Bojana Jovanovski and in 2018 against Monica Niculescu.

With Frech possessing better hold plus break numbers over the last 52 weeks (Schmiedlova has also played just the one match) and over her career, as well as an Elo rating about 55 points higher, this spread is on the wrong side of four games.

Pick: Frech -3.5 games (+100 via PointsBet)

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