Wednesday ATP Odds and Best Bets: 2 Players to Eye at the Rolex Paris Masters (Nov. 3)
Credit: BSR Agency, Getty. James Duckworth hits a backhand at the St. Petersburg Open.
The tennis keeps on rolling in France as the Rolex Paris Masters has plenty of second round action to get you through your Wednesday.
Fourteen matches are set to be played at the AccorHotels Arena, and there are a couple of opportunities that I’ll be trying to take advantage of.
Without further ado, here’s how I’ll be betting the second round matches on Wednesday.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on watching tennis matches.
James Duckworth (-128) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (+108)
6:00 a.m. ET
Lucky loser Musetti fell down to the ground in relief after getting by first-round opponent Laslo Djere. He has a much stiffer test waiting for him when he takes the court with Duckworth.
The Aussie fought extremely hard to get by Roberto Bautista Agut, a player that has far more hard court capability than Musetti, and the young Italian projects to be more playable for Duckworth on paper.
Duckworth is comfortable from the baseline, possessing two solid strokes that won’t overpower an opponent but are sturdy enough to be utilized in defense and in attack. He should have an edge over Musetti in backhand to backhand and forehand to forehand rallies, though Musetti will likely look to his backhand slice to reset points effectively.
The other big advantage that Duckworth has is his serve. He generated 12 aces and five double faults against Bautista Agut while Musetti hit nine aces and six doubles in his opening three matches in Paris. Duckworth is going to be able to generate free points in a far more consistent manner, and that will be vital.
Fitness may be the only big concern for Duckworth, as he had to engage in a tiring three-set battle with RBA yesterday and Musetti got a day off on Tuesday after defeating Djere the day prior. Nonetheless, Duckworth hasn’t played a significant amount of tennis in recent weeks and should be fresh enough.
Back the favorite to convert.
Pick: Duckworth -128 via FanDuel
Marin Cilic (-140) vs. Sebastian Korda (+114)
1 p.m. ET
Both Cilic and Korda put on solid performances to get through to the second round, though they operated in different ways.
Korda passed his first test on Monday in the form of Aslan Karatsev, sneaking by in a third set tiebreaker, while Cilic defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on Tuesday to match Korda. A look at the break point statistics show that Cilic was far more fortunate than Korda to reach this point, however.
Against Karatsev, Korda converted on 4-of-17 break-point opportunities while only saving 3-of-5. Cilic converted on 3-of-5 opportunities and saved 6-of-7 break points conceded. Regression to the mean would indicate that these percentages aren’t likely to hold again, but Korda’s edge in this matchup goes beyond those numbers.
Cilic has played 11 matches in 15 days across two countries, while Korda has only played three. At some point, both Cilic’s run of luck and fitness has to falter, and Korda is just the opponent to break him down.
Trust Korda to get through to the third round.
Pick: Korda +114 via PointsBet