Wednesday US Open Odds, Predictions: How to Bet All-American Battle Between Paul, Korda (August 31)
Sarah Stier, Elsa/Getty. Pictured: Sebastian Korda and Tommy Paul.
- One of the popcorn matches of the day at the US Open comes between Sebastian Korda and Tommy Paul.
- Carmine Carcieri sees betting value in that match as well as Andy Murray's second-rounder.
- See how he's betting the matches below.
The first round of the US Open already consisted of drama, as both Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas were ousted by qualifiers.
Now we turn our attention to the second round, including these two picks below that I have my eyes on.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
Andy Murray (-550) vs. Emilio Nava (+400)
12 p.m. ET
Andy Murray is certainly not the Murray of old. Between injuries and age, the Brit hasn’t nearly been as successful – particularly on hard courts – this season.
He has picked up his play a little bit over the last couple of weeks. Murray played his most impressive match in a while against Cam Norrie in Cincinnati, and he defeated the 24th-seeded Francisco Cerundolo in three sets in his opening-round match in Queens.
Murray broke Cerundolo’s serve seven times and won 75% of his second-serve return points (30-of-40).
The biggest stat I look at in Murray’s matches, though, is his time on the court. He played 2:43 against Cerundolo, which is entirely manageable in terms of turnaround for a player of Murray’s age and status.
I also love to fade young, inexperienced players coming off massive wins.
Emilio Nava is a 20-year-old qualifier who ranks over 200th in the world. He just defeated John Millman in five sets to earn his first-ever ATP Tour win, and now he must face a player 15 years older than him on the biggest court in tennis, Arthur Ashe Stadium.
While Nava was a junior Grand Slam singles and doubles finalist at the US Open in 2019 and 2018, respectively, this is a whole different ballgame, making nerves a factor for the Los Angeles native.
While the first set could be close as Murray feels out an opponent he knows little about, I don’t expect him to drop a set against a player with as limited experience as Nava, even during the back end of his career.
Pick: Andy Murray to Win 3-0 (+120 via FanDuel) | Play to +110
Sebastian Korda (-125) vs. Tommy Paul (-105)
2:15 p.m. ET
American tennis is on a major upswing, and what better event to prove that times have changed than the US Open.
Sebastian Korda and Tommy Paul both faced surprisingly stiff tests in their opening-round matchups, but that doesn’t take away from their overall successes this season.
While Korda dealt with shin splints and foot issues during the summer that ultimately forced him out of Wimbledon, the 22-year-old American is 22-16 on the season and had victories over Frances Tiafoe and Karen Khachanov during the North American hard-court swing.
Korda also defeated Carlos Alcaraz at Monte Carlo earlier this year, topped Cam Norrie at the Aussie Open and took Rafael Nadal to three sets at Indian Wells.
The ability is clearly there for Korda — it’s just a matter of consistently.
Then there’s Paul, who is having the best season of his pro tennis career. In addition to his Round of 16 run at Wimbledon, he also defeated Alcaraz in Montreal.
Now, Korda is rightfully favored in this matchup because of his past results against Paul — he beat his fellow American three times in 2021. But if we look closer at those results, two of the three matches went the distance, with both going over their totals in 250 events.
Even though Paul has struggled in the past against Korda’s serve and his net game, his skills have developed over the past year. While his athleticism and pure tennis ability is obvious to anyone that watches him play, he’s gotten more aggressive and tactical with his groundstrokes.
Paul and Korda also, unsurprisingly, both have Elo Ratings in the top 25 on hard courts.
I do worry about Korda’s lack of experience at the US Open — he’s only played three main-draw matches with only one win — but this is such an even match across the board that I expect this to be decided in a fifth set.
One final point: While this is a major — everyone is motivated and wants to go on a deep run — Paul has been adamant recently in interviews about how he wants to stay ahead of the younger Americans.
As a matter of pride, “we want to stay ahead of them in the rankings, we don’t want to get passed up,” Paul says. “I can speak for the whole group when I say that the younger guys doing really well has pushed us a ton.”
So, in a battle with everything on the line on the Grandstand, I’m expecting this match to topple this high number of 39.5. Don’t play this any higher than that, though.
If you’re getting risky, playing Paul — who is likely due for a win against Korda — isn’t the worst of options.
Pick: Over 39.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
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