WTA Abu Dhabi is off to an incredible start and the fun continues on Tuesday.
I’ve found value on two of Tuesday's fascinating matches for us to exploit, including Pliskova vs. Muguruza and Haddad Maia vs. Bouzkova.
Read on for my WTA picks and predictions!
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Picks & Predictions
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-125) vs. Marie Bouzkova (+100)
6:05 a.m. ET
Beatriz Haddad Maia lost to Nuria Parrizas-Diaz 6-7(11), 2-6 in the Australian Open first round. Haddad Maia won just 51% of her service points, including 30% on her second serve. The Brazilian did return fairly well, however, winning 38% of her first-serve returns and 52% of her second-serve returns.
She had a breakout 2022 season, going 51-23, though her 61% winning percentage on hard courts was the worst of any surface. Haddad Maia plays with a heavy lefty game and dictates play with her forehand. She also has a strong serve and good net play. However, her backhand can leak errors and her movement is not great.
Marie Bouzkova will be looking to avenge her own first-round Australian Open defeat, as the Czech fell to Bianca Andreescu 2-6, 4-6. Bouzkova won just 60% of her first serves and 40% of her second serves.
It is important to note that Bouzkova did have 14 winners versus 11 unforced errors in the match.
Bouzkova is a strong hard-court player, going 33-10 last season and 229-109 overall in her career. The Czech plays with a seemingly endless supply of energy and is one of the most fit players on tour. She gets consistent depth and forces her opponents into overhitting. She also absorbs pace and counterpunches at a high level.
Haddad Maia will be the aggressor in this matchup, but Bouzkova should be able to absorb her pace. The Czech will also keep the ball on Haddad Maia's backhand and place the ball deep in the court, where it's harder for the Brazilian to attack.
When it comes to fitness, Bouzkova is in better shape and is the better mover of the two, so the longer this goes, the more it favors her.
When looking at Elo ratings, Bouzkova's overall Elo is 13.9 points higher than Haddad Maia's and her hard-court Elo is 22.8 points above the Brazilian's.
Pick: Bouzkova (+100 via PointsBet)
Karolina Pliskova (-205) vs. Garbine Muguruza(+152)
10 a.m. ET
Karolina Pliskova made the quarterfinals of the Australian Open before falling 3-6, 5-7 to Magda Linette. Despite winning 74% of her first serves, Pliskova won just 29% of her second-serve points, hitting seven double faults. In addition, Pliskova's return fell apart against Linette, winning just 30% of her return points.
Despite the loss, Pliskova found another gear in Melbourne. She was broken just six times in the five matches, won over 70% of her first serves in every match and had a positive winner to unforced error ratio. The Czech has a big first serve, but is also solid from the baseline and places the ball very well.
Garbine Muguruza most recently played a disastrous match in Lyon (indoor hard), losing 1-6, 4-6 to Linda Noskova in the first round. Muguruza won just 55% of her service points and was broken four times. She was weak on return, breaking serve just once all match.
Despite being a two-time Slam champion, Muguruza has fallen off in recent times. The Spaniard went just 12-17 in 2022 and dating back to last season, is currently on a five-match losing streak. Right now, Muguruza is defending poor and is erratic when trying to play with power.
Pliskova should have no issues here. She will find a lot of free points with her first serve and Muguruza will struggle to break in the Czech's service games.
The big-hitting Pliskova is also the more solid player from the baseline at this point, as Muguruza is far too erratic with her groundstrokes to be trusted.
In addition, Pliskova's placement and consistent depth will not give the Spaniard easy opportunities to attack, Muguruza will overhit on her groundstrokes to compensate.
Pick: Pliskova -3.5 games (+100 via FanDuel)
