WTA Rome Odds, Picks | Expert Betting Predictions For Pliskova vs Bondar, Garcia vs Bogdan (May 11)
Europa Press Sports/Getty. Pictured: Ana Bogdan.
WTA Rome continues to excite and there’s more spectacular tennis set for Thursday.
I’ve found value on two of Thursday’s matchups — Pliskova vs Bondar and Garcia vs Bogdan.
Read on for my WTA Rome picks and expert predictions.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
WTA Rome Odds, Picks
Karolina Pliskova (-350) vs Anna Bondar (+260)
5 a.m. ET
Karolina Pliskova last played in Stuttgart, where she made the quarterfinals, but fell 6-4, 1-6, 2-6 to Iga Swiatek. Despite the quick, slippery conditions in Stuttgart, Pliskova only won 50% of her service points, getting broken six times. The Czech also won just 36% of her return points, although she did break three times.
It’s important to note that a knee issue forced Pliskova to withdraw from Madrid.
While clay is Pliskova’s worst surface, she does have a solid 157-114 career-record on the dirt. Pliskova has a big first serve and flatter groundstrokes that cut through the court, which might be effective in Stuttgart, but becomes problematic on traditional clay courts. The Rome courts are high-bouncing and slow, which makes it hard for Pliskova to overpower her opposition. And while she’s fairly consistent and places the ball well, the Czech is not the best mover.
Anna Bondar qualified for Rome and smoked Tatjana Maria 6-4, 6-1 in the opening round of the main draw. Bondar won 63% of her service points and was only broken once. The Hungarian also won 52% of her return points and broke in five-of-nine return games.
Bondar has an impressive 252-113 record on clay as a professional. The Hungarian controls the baseline with her heavy forehand. Her backhand is solid, although more likely to break down. Bondar understands point construction on clay, hitting with consistent depth. Her court positioning is also strong, as it is hard to back her too far off the baseline.
Pliskova is the better overall player, but she’s at her worst on clay, while Bondar is at her best. The Rome conditions neutralize Pliskova’s strengths, while playing into Bondar’s.
Look for the Hungarian, already used to the conditions, to use her forehand to drag Pliskova around the court. Bondar won’t mind longer rallies and should spread the court well, keeping the Czech on defense and in physical, all-court rallies more often than she would like.
Pick: Bondar +4.5 games (-105 via PointsBet)
Caroline Garica (-300) vs Ana Bogdan (+235)
11 a.m. ET
Caroline Garcia continued to play hit-or-miss tennis in Madrid, falling 6-7(2), 3-6 to Mayar Sherif in her second match. Garcia, who is very serve-reliant, won just 58% of her service points, getting broken on four occasions. In addition, the Frenchwoman won just 37% of her return points, although she broke three times.
Garcia has a strong 126-85 clay-record for her career, although she’s just 2-2 this season on the dirt. At Garcia’s best, she has a huge first serve and overwhelms her opponents with pace from the baseline, particularly with her forehand. However, in 2023 Garcia has become more erratic. She’s overly aggressive from the ground and has lacked the patience to consistently (and effectively) build points. This should be a problem on the slow Roman clay.
Ana Bogdan defeated Nao Hibino 7-5, 6-0 to kick off her Rome campaign. Despite winning just 41% of her second serves, Bogdan won 88% of her first serves and was only broken once. In addition, the Romanian won 52% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
Bogdan is a good clay-court player, with a 169-97 professional-record on the dirt. While Bogdan doesn’t do anything spectacularly, she hits her spots on serve and plays with consistent depth from the baseline. Bogdan has heavy groundstrokes and does a great job creating angles from the ground. The Romanian has a high tennis IQ and understands how to construct points on clay, spreading the court nicely.
Garcia has a much higher ceiling, but her level of play has been so variable recently. The Frenchwoman exchanges spectacular winners with impatient errors on a regular basis. And given the slow conditions in Rome, where patience and point construction are so important, this does not play into how Garcia has played this season.
Bogdan is a competent clay player who won’t allow the Frenchwoman to bully her around the court too much and has the shot-making abilities to keep Garcia on the move, particularly with her angles. This is especially important given that when Garcia’s feet are set, she’s able to uncork on groundstrokes more easily.
Garcia is too inconsistent right now to be giving up this many games.
Pick: Bogdan +4.5 games (-130 via FanDuel)
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