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WTA Tour Sunday Odds, Predictions: Picks for Maria vs. Pigossi & Bencic vs. Jabeur (April 10)

WTA Tour Sunday Odds, Predictions: Picks for Maria vs. Pigossi & Bencic vs. Jabeur (April 10) article feature image
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Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Belinda Bencic.

We have two spectacular finals on Sunday’s docket on the WTA Tour. Tatjana Maria will face Laura Pigossi in Bogota, while Belinda Bencic takes on Ons Jabeur in Charleston.

And I’ve found value in both matches for us to exploit.

Check out my two bets for Sunday on the WTA Tour below.

Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

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Tatjana Maria (-230) vs Laura Pigossi (+175)

12:05 p.m. ET

Tatjana Maria is looking for her second singles title in Bogota after winning her first on the grass of Mallorca in 2018. Maria comfortably beat Kamilla Rakhimova 6-2, 6-2 to advance to the final.

Against Rakhimova, Maria won 67% of her service points, including 71% of the points on her first serve, and was only broken once. She was also effective in her return games, winning 51% of her return points and breaking serve five times.

Rakhimova didn’t serve well, but she was under a lot of pressure from Maria’s game. Her slice-oriented game has been very effective, and she’s doing a great job of moving opponents around the court and forcing opponents to create their own power.  It’s no surprise then that in the main draw, Maria hasn’t lost a set.

Laura Pigossi is having the best week of her career. Pigossi is into her first singles title in Bogota, having taken down Osorio 7-5, 7-6(2).

While Osorio was clearly injured, Pigossi still played a solid match to win. Osorio really struggled on her serve, but Pigossi took good advantage, winning 56% of her return points and breaking Osorio seven times.

Pigossi, who already beat Dayana Yastremska in the quarterfinals, is solid from the baseline and moves around the court well. It’s hard to hit through the Brazilian and she gets good depth on her groundstrokes. Pigossi can also take control of rallies when her court positioning is good.

Maria has more experience at this level, the better serve, and a more dynamic game. Pigossi isn’t one to take the initiative in points and be aggressive, and with Maria’s floating slices, she will have to do so.

Pigossi has also spent much more time on the court in recent rounds compared to Maria.

When looking at Elo ratings, Maria’s overall Elo is 308.6 points better than Pigossi’s and her clay Elo is 216.7 points better than the Brazilian’s.

Pick: Maria 2-0 in sets (+106 via PointsBet)

Belinda Bencic (-102) vs Ons Jabeur (-122)

1:30 p.m. ET

Belinda Bencic has continued her great form from Miami in Charleston. In her most recent win, Bencic beat Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 6-3.

In the match against Alexandrova, Bencic won 75% of her first serves and 68% of her second serves, only getting broken once all match. On return, Bencic won 65% of the points on Alexandrova’s second serve.

Bencic has won at least 2/3rds of her first-serve points in every match this week. She’s hitting her spots on serve and has been rock-solid from the baseline. Bencic has done a great job of absorbing the power sent her way and then directing it where she wants with her reply. Beating Paula Badosa in the quarterfinals was a sign that Bencic is locked in and in the form to grab this title.

Ons Jabeur is playing great tennis in Charleston. Jabeur defeated Amanda Anisimova from a set down to reach the final.

Jabeur won 67% of her first serves and, on return, she won 65% of her second-serve return points. Jabeur broke Anisimova’s serve on six occasions, doing a great job of neutralizing the American’s serve and then turning the point in her favor.

Jabeur’s combination of a powerful forehand, solid backhand, and beautiful touch make her a very tough opponent to face. And, while the Tunisian doesn’t play well in the heat, it has been cool in Charleston this week and the weather won’t play a factor tomorrow.

Both players will feel they have a big chance in this match. Jabeur has just one title in her career,  in Birmingham last season, and lost in the final of one of the Charleston events last season to Astra Sharma in a shocking defeat. She might feel more pressure in this match.

Bencic is the more solid of the two players and she has steadily improved as the week has gone on. Bencic won’t give much away, is solid in all aspects of her game, and is the more fit player if this is a long match.

Bencic is also going to be very confident, having won nine of her last ten matches, which is on full display with how she’s played from the baseline in her tight matches this week.

Pick: Bencic ML (-102 via FanDuel)

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