The Indiana Fever (11-8) and Las Vegas Aces (15-5) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Aces are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 180.5 (-115o / -105u). The Aces are a -155 favorite to win outright, while the Fever are +130 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Fever vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks.
Fever vs. Aces Odds, Pick
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 180.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 180.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
- Fever vs. Aces Spread: Fever +3.5 (-120), Aces -3.5 (+100)
- Fever vs. Aces Over/Under: 180.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Fever vs. Aces Moneyline: Fever +130, Aces -155
- Fever vs. Aces Best Bet: Fever +3.5 (-120)
Fever vs. Aces Preview
The Fever and Aces will renew their rivalry after facing off eight times last season. Indiana won the regular-season series 2-1, but in the playoffs, the Aces prevailed 3-2 as they marched to their third title in four years.
While any meeting between these two teams is always highly anticipated, this matchup will be missing a bit of stardust as the Fever's Caitlin Clark (back) and the Aces' A'ja Wilson (leg) are set to miss the game due to injuries.
Since bursting onto the national stage, Clark has always been a lightning rod, and the latest incident is that, based on the official All-Star Game voting results, players around the league view her as the 11th-best guard this season, while fans and media view her more favorably, ranking her second and third, respectively.
Another way to assess Clark's relevance is to look at her team's betting history when she's not on the court. The findings could point to a clear direction of travel that guides our approach to this game from a value perspective.
Fever vs. Aces Prediction
By all accounts, Clark is having a pretty good season. She's averaging a career-high in scoring, 21.2 PPG, and her 8.2 assists are right in line with her career-best mark of 8.8. Her field goal percentage (43%) is also a career-best, and her 3-point percentage (34.4%) matches her career-high during her rookie campaign.
Even her 4.6 turnovers are her lowest mark since entering the league.
So why is there so much negativity surrounding a player who ranks second in the league for assists and third for scoring?
Personally, I think Clark draws a lot of criticism because she can be an agitator, but I'm not sure she can handle the smoke when she's on the receiving end from other players.
As good as Clark is offensively, she's arguably just as bad defensively. Her 107.1 Defensive Rating puts her 77th in the league amongst players with a minimum of 10 games played and an average of 15 minutes.
While she has a positive Net Rating of 4.3, Wilson's value is more than double at 9.6.
For those who view Clark as undervalued, it doesn't help their argument that Indiana is 23-19 straight up without her since she entered the league and 24-18 against the spread.
This season, Indiana is both 2-0 straight up and against the spread without Clark.
The Aces opened as high as -6.5 point favorites, and that number is down to -3.5. According to our BetLabs database, line moves in this direction are 66-56 (54.1%) on the year, and this angle is on a 5-0 run.
With my model projecting Las Vegas as closer to a -1.9 favorite, I can only look to back the visitors with +3.5 still available at DraftKings.
Best Bet: Fever+3.5 (-120, DraftKings)
