The Golden State Valkyries (13-7) and Atlanta Dream (12-8) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT at Gateway Center Arena in College Park, Ga. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
The Dream are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 162.5 (-110o / -110u). The Dream are a -164 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are +134 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Dream predictions and WNBA picks.
Valkyries vs. Dream Odds, Pick
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -106 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | +134 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -114 | 162.5 -110o / -110u | -164 |
- Valkyries vs. Dream Spread: Dream -3.5 (-114), Valkyries +3.5 (-106)
- Valkyries vs. Dream Over/Under: 162.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Valkyries vs. Dream Moneyline: Valkyries +134, Dream -164
- Valkyries vs. Dream Best Bet: Under 163.5
Valkyries vs. Dream Preview
The Valkyries look to complete a season series sweep on the Fourth of July as they travel to Atlanta to face the Dream at the Gateway Center Arena.
Golden State has had the upper hand in this matchup and secured back-to-back home victories against Atlanta in late June. The Valkyries are coming off an exceptionally impressive defensive performance where they held the potent Liberty to just 67 points in a 76-67 win. Led by newly named WNBA All-Star starter Gabby Williams, who is averaging a career-high 15.8 points per game, the Valkyries have established themselves as one of the elite defensive units in the league, currently sitting comfortably in third place in the WNBA standings.
The Dream possess one of the league's best records and feature dominant interior talent like Angel Reese. However, finding consistent, high-octane offensive flow has been a struggle against disciplined defenses. In their first meeting against the Valkyries on June 24, the Dream were held to a season-low 66 points. Though they adjusted in the subsequent 78-75 loss, generating clean looks against Golden State’s length—particularly with Kiah Stokes anchoring the rim (who recently logged a franchise-record 7 blocks against them)—presents a structural problem for Atlanta's inside-out offense.
Valkyries vs. Dream Prediction
When these two teams share the court, the defensive intensity tends to completely dictate the flow of the game. Their two meetings in late June produced total scores of 143 and 153 points.
Golden State's defensive scheme is perfectly built to choke out Atlanta's primary scoring options, forcing lengthy possessions and contested perimeter looks. Furthermore, the Valkyries themselves aren't an overly fast-paced team; they prefer to execute in the half-court, relying on floor spacers like Kayla Thornton and Cecilia Zandalasini to hit systematic shots rather than running and gunning.
With the line sitting at 163.5, the market seems to be over-correcting for a potential holiday weekend scoring bump or standard home-court variance. Our proprietary tracking data indicates that this number is heavily inflated based on how these two specific rosters match up.
Our Action Network PRO projections are showing a massive edge on the total for this holiday matchup. While the market consensus has settled at 163.5, our data models project the true total for this game down at 160 points.
This discrepancy gives us a highly actionable 5.9% edge against the current market. Given the recent head-to-head trends and both teams' defensive metrics, the under is the clear sharp play.
As a reminder, you can see all of our WNBA projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
Best Bet: Under 163.5 (-115, betMGM)
