Sunday WNBA Finals Game 2 Betting Odds, Pick: Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces (Oct. 4)
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Breanna Stewart.
- The Seattle Storm take on the Las Vegas Aces in Game 2 of the WNBA Finals on Sunday.
- The Storm took Game 1 after an explosive performance on the fast break, and Michael Arinze thinks that's possible again.
- Check out Arinze's full breakdown with updated odds below.
Storm vs. Aces Odds
|Storm Odds||-7 [BET NOW]|
|Aces Odds||+7 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||166.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
The Seattle Storm are two wins away from their second WNBA title in three years and their fourth in franchise history.
Seattle’s victory over Las Vegas on Friday showed the full complements of Storm’s prowess with Sue Bird setting a WNBA playoff record with 16 assists and Breanna Stewart pouring in 37 points. The Aces came back from a 17-point deficit to tie the game in the third quarter before Stewart scored the game’s next 11 points to take a comfortable 13-point lead.
This was a pretty clean ball game all around, as each team only had eight turnovers in the contest. Las Vegas actually shot better than Seattle from the 3-point line, making 10-of-21 triples (47.6%) against 9-of-25 shooting from deep (36%) for the Storm. What’s interesting about that is that Las Vegas was the worst 3-point shooting team during the regular season with only 4.2 baskets made beyond the arc per game, while Seattle was second in the league with 8.4 3-pointers per game. Yet despite its efforts, Las Vegas still lost by double digits.
So, what happened? Game 1 simply highlights the difficulties of playing against a team that’s as versatile as the Storm.
Fast-break Points Are Soul-Crushers
There’s a lot that can be learned by simply reviewing the box scores after each game. However, that analysis doesn’t always provide the answers to why a team won or lost the game. Yes, the Seattle Storm made nine more field goals (36-of-72, 50%) than Las Vegas (27-of-77, 35.1%), but it was really how they did it that’s most revealing.
Fast-break points are not an official stat in the box score, but while watching the game, I recall a stretch in which Seattle seemed to score four consecutive baskets in the second quarter while on a fast break.
Those types of baskets can be a backbreaker for opposing teams because these are really unforced errors in my book. Conceding easy buckets like that can break the will of a team if it’s ignoring the game’s physical demands of simply running with its opponent.
That’s where the mental fatigue sets in, and a good team with Sue Bird as its floor general will look to exploit that every chance it gets.
Betting Analysis & Pick
In my Game 1 preview, I mentioned that while Las Vegas won the first two regular-season meetings, Seattle did not have Bird and Stewart on the court together for either game. While it’s unclear if that was by design to give the Aces a false sense of confidence, we can now see the full arsenal this Seattle team can deploy at a given moment.
Our Game 1 prediction of Seattle on the money line (-170) in the first quarter cashed, but it seems sportsbooks have caught on to the Aces’ slow starts and juiced this number up to -215 for Game 2.
However, once Seattle gets going, its dominance can also stretch into the second quarter. That’s when it really starts to push the ball up the court as its opponents start to fatigue from being stretched in their defensive assignments.
PointsBet has Seattle as a second-quarter favorite at -1.5. Since I generally like to bet these if I can find them under two points, I’ll look to back Seattle in this spot with a half unit.
The Pick: Seattle 2nd Quarter -1.5 (-121)
Bonus Bet: Two-leg 4.5-Point Teaser — Seattle -3.5/Over 162