WNBA Odds, Picks, Previews & Predictions: 4 Best Bets for Sunday’s Slate, Featuring Dream vs. Lynx (August 7)

What a Sunday slate! We have two Big Five matchups and no Fever game to weigh down the day — perfection.

This is the point of the season when teams have all faced each other enough to provide us with a bit of context for how the teams match-up — or as much as we are afforded in a 36-game season. It means the analysis can be a little bit more fun, using actual results instead of hypothetical strengths and weaknesses.

However, it also means we're all likely to overweigh some of that information —especially on the player side. Just because Han Xu went for nearly a triple-down in the first game against the Sparks doesn't mean we should expect that moving forward against L.A. — see her 6-1-1 line the next night. Finding the right balance between noticing when teams really match-up well against an opponent and what's just noise is what makes sports betting as fun as it is.

In that vein, we've got some lengthy previews today, so let's get to it.

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WNBA Odds, Picks

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Sun vs. Sky

Injuries/News

No surprises as of writing. Chicago has a clean injury sheet and Connecticut is missing the same two it has been: Jasmine Thomas and Bria Hartley, both out for the season.

A Clean Sweep?

The Connecticut Sun  must be real sick of seeing the Chicago Sky at this point. The Sky are 3-0 against the Sun this season, coming on the back of pulling off a semifinal upset in last year's playoffs. The Sky even took two of three from the Sun during last year's regular season as well.

It's interesting that the Sky have had such a stranglehold on the series between these two of late because matchup wise, the Sun actually profile as a tough opponent for the Sky.

Over the past two seasons, allowing offensive rebounds and second chance points has been a bugaboo for the Sky, ranking second-to-last in the league in second chance points in 2021 as a whole and now ranking in a tie for last in 2022 with just a few games remaining. The Sun, of course, are a historically strong team on the offensive glass as has been highlighted numerous times in these articles.

So what gives?

There are, of course, many different possibilities, not the least of which is that even though it's two seasons worth of matchups, we're talking about just 10 games, far from enough time to get a true representation of how these two teams truly matchup. Still, I think there is something that jumps out in looking a little deeper.

The Sky are very good at chasing teams off the three-point line. It's why they allow by far the lowest percentage of opponent shots from three (27%). The Sun are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league, but in Courtney Williams, they have a player who is notorious for enjoying a deep two. Maybe it's not shocking then that Williams is shooting just 30.9% from the field in the Sun's three losses to the Sky this season (which, we should note, were all very tight games). She shoots just 41.1% from the field against the Sky in her career, her second-worst mark against any team in the W.

Now, by no means do I think this is a skeleton key to figuring out the success the Sky have had against the Sun, but it does seem like a potential part. (We should note here that Williams wasn't on the Sun last season when they were 1-2 in the regular season against the Sky and lost in four games in the semifinals.)

I do, however, think the Chicago -2.5 line at Fanduel, in that light, is a bit low. That implies the Sun might actually be the slightly better team on a neutral court.

It also doesn't hurt that the Sky have been truly elite in the fourth quarter this season, as well as in tight games, a trait I think is somewhat sustainable with their veteran core and strong coaching.

Pick: Chicago -2.5

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Sparks vs. Mystics

Injuries/News

The Sparks have hit been hit hard with injuries all season and it just hasn't let up. Rae Burrell and Amanda Zahui B. have been out the full season, while Kristi Tolliver will be out for her fourth straight game. Chiney Ogwumike is also questionable and maybe missing her third straight.

The Mystics, on the other hand, have a clean bill of health, including Elena Delle Donne, who sat out the last game for rest.

Maybe They Needed Liz …

There was a lot of folks, myself included, who did a whole lot of "addition by subtraction" talk when the Sparks and their star offseason signing, Liz Cambage, underwent their conscious uncoupling after the team's July 23 loss to the Aces.

Since then, the Sparks are 0-5, dropping like a rock out of the postseason spot they held and have been outscored by 51 points. None of those five games came against one of the Big Five, either. Yikes.

However, I will briefly note that four of the five games have been on the road and that 29 of those 51 points of margin came in one game. Still, it hasn't been pretty. Especially on the offensive end, where things were seemingly going to open up without Cambage.

The spread for Sunday makes sense. It opened at WAS -8.5, which I immediately jumped on and logged in the app, but with the line out to WAS -10.5 and the Mystics being such a poor fourth quarter team (while the Sparks have been surprisingly good in the fourth), I think the best bet now lies elsewhere.

The Sparks team total hasn't been released yet, but with a total of 159.5 and a 10.5-point spread, the Sparks team total should come in around 74.5. I would hammer this under. They are averaging less than 74 points per game in the post-Cambage era and that was against some of the worst defenses in the W. Now they have to face a Mystics defense that can shut down the best of the best. If any book will let you buy some points and you can get them down to under 69.5 or something like that, I likely wouldn't mind taking that chance. The Liberty held the Sparks to an average of 67 points in their two recent games. The Liberty!

Pick: Los Angeles under 74.5 (down to 69.5 for plus money)

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Aces vs. Storm

Injuries/News

It's getting a little silly with Las Vegas. I don't want to jinx it, but I'm not sure I can at this point. The Aces perfect health for the season remains in tact another day.

For Seattle, Mercedes Russell remains out for the season and Stephanie Talbot is listed as probable with an ankle injury.

Stumbling Down The Stretch

This should, in theory, be another awesome matchup on Sunday, but both teams are stumbling a bit as they come down the stretch. The Aces are fresh off two straight losses — the first a somewhat defensible road loss to the Washington Mystics, the second a little less defensible, falling 82-80 to the Wings in Dallas.

For Seattle, its most recent outing was a W, but the Storm are 3-4 in their past seven games, with a non-Big Five loss of their own (losing to the Mercury in Phoenix) a few weeks back.

Even still, this should be a fun and close game. In A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart, this game features (in my mind, easily) the two best players in the league right now and because both are two-way stars, they should even get the chance to cover each other a bit.

Both will take this game personally and as a pair of raging psychopathic competitors, both will likely see it as a referendum on the tightly-contested MVP race.

In fact, that's where I'm going for my best bet(s). Both players' point total overs. I tend to hate playing overs and even more so on star players whose lines are often inflated by the public, but I don't think the books will give any sort of "MVP battle" boost to their lines. While that is the type of narrative I sometimes eschew, this time, I'm in. I'm really in. I'm riding shotgun with my head out the window, Joker-in-the-Dark-Knight style. Let's manifest this.

While we're playing funky (somewhat reckless) bets on this game, I'm going to put down one more: Game to be decided by 5 points or less. I am struggling to find a side to back on this one, but with both teams really struggling in fourth quarters this season, I don't see either running away and hiding. I also don't see Wilson or Stewart letting their opponent run off and hide.

Pick: Breanna Stewart and Aja Wilson points overs (I will tweet and put on the app when (if) the books release the player props for this game.)
Pick: Game to be decided by 5 or less points (usually available at DraftKings and should be in the +150 range)

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Dream vs. Lynx

Injuries/News

The Dream have entered their names into the sorting hat alongside the Liberty and Sparks to be chosen as the most injury-ridden team in the W this year. They'll be without four of their players Sunday: AD Durr (out for season, hip), Nia Coffey (out for season, knee), Monique Billings (ankle) and Tiffany Hayes (ankle).

For the Lynx, outside of their season-long absences, Aerial Powers (knee) is the only player listed and she is probable.

A Surprising (And Juicy) Line

We have already spent many, many words breaking down the first three games of the slate, but this one is pretty simple to me. Despite being two games back in the win-loss column, the Minnesota Lynx are a better team than the Atlanta Dream.

The Lynx have a better season-long net rating and if we take off their respective illusionary starts (7-4 for the Dream; 3-13 for the Lynx) it becomes abundantly clear whose the better team. And that's even before we get to the fact that the Dream are without Tiffany Hayes and that their defense has hit a wall in the past month (and honestly, ever since their 7-4 start). We also can't forget that the Lynx are always very strong at home.

Honestly, this line is so juicy that I am almost worried I am missing something. But let's not overthink this. The Lynx are better. They are at home. And we can get their moneyline for just -110 (it has already moved at some books, so I'm clearly not the only one thinking this way). Run don't walk.

Best bet (1.5 units): Minnesota moneyline -110  (all the way up to -190!)
Lean: Over 162.5

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