WNBA Picks: Odds, Best Bets for Dream vs Sky, Aces vs. Lynx (July 9)
Via Stephen Gosling/Getty Images. Pictured: Allisha Gray #15 of the Atlanta Dream shoots a free throw during the game against the Washington Mystics on June 28, 2023 at Entertainment and Sports Arena in Washington, D.C.
As we approach the halfway point of the WNBA season, we have another excellent Sunday slate with five games spread across the day for fans and bettors of the W to enjoy a full day of action, including Dream vs Sky and Aces vs. Lynx.
I have distinct game previews of the first two games, so those write-ups will be very short, but we’ll dive a little deeper on the later games and hand out some best bets for your Sunday viewing.
WNBA Odds & Picks
Click on game to skip ahead
| Matchup | Time |
| Mystics vs. Sun | 3 p.m. ET |
| Wings vs. Fever | 4 p.m. ET |
| Aces vs. Lynx | 7 p.m. ET |
Mystics vs. Sun Odds
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 158.5 -110/ -110 | +140 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 158.5 -110/ -110 | -165 |
This line is already moving from when I wrote up my game preview, so naturally the advice is going to change a bit. With the line up to Sun -4.5, that’s right at the number I wouldn't play past.
However, the total appears to be increasing. While I do respect the market, I don’t think the WNBA market is perfect, and there can be times to fade steam. As such, I’m going to try to wait out this total and hit it when it gets to its highest.
If it gets to 161 (sitting at 160.5 as of writing), I’ll be on the under for the reasons laid out in the full preview.
Bet: Under 161
Wings vs. Fever Odds
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 170.5 -110/ -110 | -155 |
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 170.5 -110/ -110 | +130 |
With another best bet on the move, I’ll stick with Dallas here. The Wings moneyline has value to -175, and I see it settling around there, so bettors should be safe.
I do still like the potential to live bet the Fever, however, as I laid out in the full-game preview.
Pick: Dallas Wings ML -150 |
Aces vs. Lynx Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 171.5 -110/ -110 | -1250 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 171.5 -110/ -110 | +710 |
After a slow start to the season, Kelsey Plum has gotten back to nearly the level she was at last season. In her first seven games of the season, Plum barely got above one made 3 per game.
However, since then she is averaging 2.7 made 3s per game and has reached at least three 3s in seven of those 10 games.
The Minnesota Lynx give up the most 3s per game—by far—of any team in the W, and they allow opponents to make those shots at the third-highest clip. The last time these two teams played, Plum made only one 3, but that was on nine attempts, so it was not for lack of trying.
She should be able to get off plenty of looks again on Sunday, so being able to get her at over 2.5 made 3s at +100 at BetRivers is a great look.
Pick: Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 Made 3s |
Dream vs. Sky Odds
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 168.5 -110/ -110 | +100 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 168.5 -110/ -110 | -122 |
This is my favorite game for best bets on Sunday. The side and total are just totally out of whack here. The two teams played on Friday in Chicago, and before the game I talked about how I thought that even though this line made sense, I was going to be on the Dream because, simply, they are the much better team in reality.
They started the season a little wonky, but they have righted the ship and look like the team we expected before the season.
The total also appeared to be very high compared to where the market should have been pricing it.
So then Friday happened, the Dream won by a dozen, and the game went under by nearly 20 points.
What did the books do? They hung the exact same numbers today as on Friday.
Let’s not overthink this — take the Dream moneyline and the under. Maybe even parlay the two at Caesars if you’d like.
I’d play this to Dream -155 and under 164.5.
Pick: Dream ML +100 |
Pick: Under 169.5 |
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