Wings vs. Fever Odds, Picks | WNBA Betting Preview
Via Michael Gonzales/Getty Images. Pictured: Teaira McCowan #7 of the Dallas Wings is interviewed after the game against the Las Vegas Aces on July 7, 2023 at the College Park Center in Arlington, TX.
Wings vs. Fever Odds
The Dallas Wings head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Fever on Sunday on ESPN3.
The Wings are fresh off their biggest win in a while, a two-point dub over the Aces—handing Las Vegas only its second loss of the season as a result.
For the Fever, things haven’t been as great as they have now lost six straight, and while the vibes are much better than in recent seasons with the future looking much brighter, the losses are still piling up for a seventh (!!) straight season.
There’s been a bit of early money on the Wings, and it makes sense given each team’s success in the past month. Let’s see if there’s still value to be had betting this matchup between the Dallas Wings and Indiana Fever.
The Wings' record sits at 9-9 after Friday’s big win, but their Net Rating suggests a slightly better team than that (+1.1). They have both the best record and the best Net Rating outside of the Big Four in the league right now.
In the last two weeks, their Net Rating is even up to +4.6, and with Teaira McCowan back in the mix, they are as healthy as they’ve been this season.
In fact, with their top four-player unit on the floor (Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard and McCowan), the Wings have a sparkling +15.9 Net Rating.
For reference, the top four in Las Vegas (Chelsea Gray, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson) have a Net Rating of +17.4—not far off.
Now, Las Vegas has done that over a much bigger sample of minutes because McCowan has been out so much of the season, but the ceiling for this Wings team is quite high if they can keep the pieces together.
For the Fever, their best hope is keeping the game close heading into the fourth quarter. While quarter data can be a little bit noisy at times, there are definitely teams that do better in some quarters versus others.
For whatever reason (likely the youthful ability to not roll over), the Fourth Quarter Fever have become a bit of a meme. It began last season when, despite the 5-31 record, the Fever seemed to cover every fourth-quarter spread. This season, that pattern has returned with a vengeance, and they actually sport the second-best Net Rating in the entire W in the fourth quarter (+11.0).
The Wings sit on the other side of this spectrum, often getting out to leads but struggling to close the door, with a -7.8 Net Rating in the fourth that is quite literally last in the entire WNBA.
As such, I am still on the Wings' side, but I’m going to take the moneyline. The Fever have proven an ability to keep games close, and while 2.5 points is a tiny margin to switch to moneyline, it’s the right play in this matchup.
Maybe the best play in this game, however, will be to live bet the Fever to cover the spread before the fourth quarter starts. I could very easily see this game heading into the fourth with the Wings up 14, only to win by the skin of their teeth. Some books will let you bet the fourth quarter before the game starts, but none have released the lines just yet, and getting it live is often beneficial.