WNBA Picks: Odds, Best Bets for Sun vs. Sky , Wings vs. Lynx (July 12)
Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Arike Ogunbowale #24 of the Dallas Wings.
I typically hate to center the WNBA around other sports, but there is an inevitability in having to do this until a sport is as established as the NFL. The NBA celebrates when the NFL avoids Christmas Day, and MLB plans its playoff schedule around Goodell & Co., too.
As such, Wednesday is a fun day for the W. Baseball is on its All-Star Break, the NBA has mostly seen its free agency chaos quiet down, and the NFL is as quiet as its ever going to be. The WNBA, meanwhile, has a bomb slate for Wednesday, the final day before its own All-Star Break.
It's a wild day of hoops, with a "last day of school before summer vacation" vibe between three Camp Day games and two more games featuring teams on one day's rest (a rarity in the W).
With three games set to tip off by 1 p.m. ET, this article will cover best bets for those early games, with another article to cover the evening games later today.
WNBA Odds & Picks
Click on game to skip ahead
| Matchup | Time |
| Liberty vs. Fever | 12 p.m. ET |
| Sun vs. Sky | 12 p.m. ET |
| Wings vs. Lynx | 1 p.m. ET |
Liberty vs. Fever Odds
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | -650 |
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | -167.5 -110/ -110 | +440 |
Flash back nearly a month ago and the Fever were 5-7, right on the fringe of the playoffs and starting to get the label of "pesky young team that could surprise folks." Even the next two games, they lost both to the Aces but held their own — the vibes were good.
Flash forward to today, and they have lost seven straight; the vibes are definitively not good (rumors of warring young factions), and they just lost NaLyssa Smith for at least a few weeks.
The result: The Fever are now nearly double-digit dogs at home, albeit to the New York Liberty. This will be the first game without Smith, so it will be very interesting to see how it impacts player props. So far this season, Kelsey Mitchell has been the big winner with Smith off the court. Add to that the fact that she is far better at home, and I'll be playing Kelsey Mitchell over 17.5
KMitch has scored 22.9 points per 100 possessions with Smith on the court this season, but that number JUMPS to 33.8 points per 100 with Smith off the court — the biggest gap for any Fever player.
Bet: Kelsey Mitchell over 17.5 points.
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Sun vs. Sky Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -112 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | -184 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -108 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | +148 |
The Sky love themselves a Camp Day, and it's the Sun who get the challenge on Wednesday, with a nice 11 a.m. Central Time tipoff.
This line opened at Sun -2.5 and quickly moved to -3.5. I still think there's a bit of value on the Sun. Connecticut has been consistently underrated by opening lines all season, and the injury of Brionna Jones has also increased that disrespe(CT) — (it's actually true this season!). By net rating alone, this number should be Sun -8.5, and while that number includes Sun results with Jones, they have also played a harder schedule than the Sky and really have not lost a beat without Jones against the middle class of the WNBA.
The Sky have looked alright under new head coach Emre Vatansever, but not a true challenger to the Sun. However, one player has shined since Wade left town: Elizabeth Williams. Under Emre, E-Will is averaging 13.7 points and 7.7 rebounds, up from 8.4 points and 4.9 rebounds. Some of that is small sample noise, but her minutes and looks are both up as well.
I would bet Williams over 10.5 points and 6.5 rebounds.
Bet: Elizabeth Williams over points and rebounds
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Wings vs. Lynx Odds
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | -132 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | +108 |
This feels like the ultimate trap game. The Wings are fresh off an amazing win over the Aces. The Lynx and their head coach Cheryl Reeve are basically built to take advantage of a team and situation like that. The line came out at Dallas -2.5 and moved to -1.5.
All that being said, I just can't get to a point where I see the Wings as they are only 4.5 points better than the Lynx. As such, it will be a half unit "best bet," but I do lean to Dallas.
The Wings have been outstanding at full strength, as I pointed out last time. Their best four-player unit of Arike Ogunbowale, Satou Sabally, Natasha Howard, and Teaira McCowan has been nearly on par with what the Aces' best four-player unit has been doing, so as long as those four are around, I think the Wings are potentially going to be overlooked in the market.
Bet: Wings -1.5
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