Nick Giffen

Luck Under

James Cook under 19.5 Rush Att (-120 at Bet365, 18.5 everywhere else (-127 at DK best)) Two major factors should impact Cook's rushing attempt prop in their Wild Card Round game against Jacksonville. First, Jacksonville possess the ball at a top-five rate, meaning there's less time overall for Buffalo to run plays. Buffalo has had a relatively fortunate schedule in the time-of-possession department, facing just four teams with a top-12 TOP. In those four games, Cook stayed under 18.5 three times. And in six total games against top-half time of possession teams, he stayed under 18.5 in four of six. Additionally, game script may not favor him here. Buffalo is favored by about a point, but this is essentially a coin-flip game by the betting odds, and by our schedule-adjusted Expected Scores I actually have Jacksonville favored. When Buffalo has had a second-half average win probability of 65% or less, Cook has stayed under 18.5 in six of eight games. In the other eight, Buffalo's average second-half win probability was always north of 80%. In those eight he cleared 18.5 in six of those games. Jacksonville is also a top-five run defense by DVOA, so Buffalo ideally would like to throw on them more as well to have better chances at moving the ball. With all three starting CBs questionable for Jacksonville, it could be even more imperative to throw on them. I'm projecting Cook for 17.9 carries with a 57% chance of staying under 18.5 if I'm using the current betting lines. But if I make this a pure coin flip, or even favor Jacksonville slightly, I'd have this at around 17.5 or even lower.

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