Saturday World Cup Projections: Value on Denmark, Mexico & More

Saturday World Cup Projections: Value on Denmark, Mexico & More article feature image

NurPhoto, Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Lionel Messi and Robert Lewandowski.

Saturday's games will mark the halfway point of the group stages when Group C and Group D take center stage.

My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.

We had another profitable day on Friday, with the USA securing a 0-0 draw against England to push us to +1.5 units on the day. That result also moved us to +13.0 units for the World Cup so far.

Let's dive into my simulations for Saturday's FIFA World Cup games.

Friday World Cup Projections

All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise

Group D: Tunisia vs. Australia (5 a.m. ET)

  • Tunisia are 37.3% to win according to my simulations.
  • These are two of the weaker teams in the World Cup.
  • That means the potential for a draw is quite high.
  • Tunisia project for 1.2 goals, while Australia project for 1.0 goals.
  • Best Bets: Correct Score 1-1 (+525 via BetMGM), Draw (+225 via DraftKings)
  • Bet to: +510 and +210 respectively

Group C: Poland vs. Saudi Arabia (8 a.m. ET)

  • Poland are 51.1% favorites to win according to my simulations.
  • A small location/regional advantage was applied to Saudi Arabia.
  • Books are overreacting to Saudi Arabia's defeat of Argentina.
  • At the same time, they are overvaluing Poland's ability to win.
  • There is a 31.7% chance of a draw per my simulations.
  • Best Bet: Draw (+275 via DraftKings)
  • Bet to: +240

Group D: France vs. Denmark (11 a.m. ET)

  • France are 42.0% to win according to my simulations.
  • Both teams have stingy defenses, and France's offense isn't as potent as it gets credit for, especially after a four-goal outburst against Australia.
  • That gives value to the under.
  • There's value on Denmark to win and draw, so let's combine them.
  • Best Bets: Denmark +0.5 (+105 via DraftKings), Under 2.5 (-128 via FanDuel)
  • Bet to: -110 and -135 respectively

Group C: Argentina vs. Mexico (2 p.m. ET)

  • Argentina are 51.0% favorites to win according to my simulations.
  • My simulations likely under-rate Argentina, as they had multiple goals disallowed due to offside.
  • Meanwhile, Mexico underwhelmed in a 0-0 draw with Poland.
  • That said, even adjusting Argentina upward, the gap between these two teams is closer than books are making, so there's still value on Mexico.
  • Argentina don't have a potent offense, scoring only 27 goals in 17 qualifiers, while Mexico rate even worse offensively.
  • Thus, there's value on the under.
  • Best Bet: Mexico +0.5 (+155 via DraftKings), Under 2.5 (-130 via BetRivers)
  • Bet to: +145 and -135 respectively

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