Saturday World Cup Projections: Value on Denmark, Mexico & More

Saturday's games will mark the halfway point of the group stages when Group C and Group D take center stage.

My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.

We had another profitable day on Friday, with the USA securing a 0-0 draw against England to push us to +1.5 units on the day. That result also moved us to +13.0 units for the World Cup so far.

Let's dive into my simulations for Saturday's FIFA World Cup games.

Friday World Cup Projections

All bets are 1 unit unless stated otherwise

Group D: Tunisia vs. Australia (5 a.m. ET)

• Tunisia are 37.3% to win according to my simulations.
• These are two of the weaker teams in the World Cup.
• That means the potential for a draw is quite high.
• Tunisia project for 1.2 goals, while Australia project for 1.0 goals.
• Best Bets: Correct Score 1-1 (+525 via BetMGM), Draw (+225 via DraftKings)
• Bet to: +510 and +210 respectively

Group C: Poland vs. Saudi Arabia (8 a.m. ET)

• Poland are 51.1% favorites to win according to my simulations.
• A small location/regional advantage was applied to Saudi Arabia.
• Books are overreacting to Saudi Arabia's defeat of Argentina.
• At the same time, they are overvaluing Poland's ability to win.
• There is a 31.7% chance of a draw per my simulations.
• Best Bet: Draw (+275 via DraftKings)
• Bet to: +240

Group D: France vs. Denmark (11 a.m. ET)

• France are 42.0% to win according to my simulations.
• Both teams have stingy defenses, and France's offense isn't as potent as it gets credit for, especially after a four-goal outburst against Australia.
• That gives value to the under.
• There's value on Denmark to win and draw, so let's combine them.
• Best Bets: Denmark +0.5 (+105 via DraftKings), Under 2.5 (-128 via FanDuel)
• Bet to: -110 and -135 respectively

Group C: Argentina vs. Mexico (2 p.m. ET)

• Argentina are 51.0% favorites to win according to my simulations.
• My simulations likely under-rate Argentina, as they had multiple goals disallowed due to offside.
• Meanwhile, Mexico underwhelmed in a 0-0 draw with Poland.
• That said, even adjusting Argentina upward, the gap between these two teams is closer than books are making, so there's still value on Mexico.
• Argentina don't have a potent offense, scoring only 27 goals in 17 qualifiers, while Mexico rate even worse offensively.
• Thus, there's value on the under.
• Best Bet: Mexico +0.5 (+155 via DraftKings), Under 2.5 (-130 via BetRivers)
• Bet to: +145 and -135 respectively