Nick Giffen

Jordan Derkack under 4.5 rebouns (-110 at MGM, -115 Bet365/Hard Rock) Derkack has been held under this line in all four games against location-adjusted top 100 teams. Those four games averaged 77.75 possessions per game, but despite FSU's top-10 pace, this game forecasts for just 74 possessions. In these top-tier games, Derkack's teammate and Dayton's top rebounder Amael L'Etang tends to see higher minues, which shoul eat into Derkack's rebound opportunity. Additionally, I'm forecasting Alex Steen to start for FSU after missing one game and being limited in the next with a groin injury. Steen is a mosnter presence on the glass when he's in for the Seminoles, ranking what would be fourth nationally in offensive rebound rate if he qualified on minutes (which he would have without the injury). There's also the hidden factor that FSU has played the 22nd toughest rebounding schedule in the nation, so they get a solid adjustment to their true rebound rates thanks to the difficult opposition they've faced. Florida State chucks up threes at a high rate, which isn't ideal, but every single non-Steen starter (he's attempted one three in his freshman year) is running well below their career and typical season-long rates. Any positive regression would eat into the Flyers' defensive rebound opportunities. In short, we're rooting for Steen to start, play about 15+ minutes, not get L'Etang in foul trouble, and for FSU to nail their threes. Dayton isn't a great three-point shooting defense, so this is a prime spot for FSU regression on their outside shooting. I'm forecasting a shade under 4 rebounds on average for Derkack, with just over a 60% chance to stay under 4.5 rebounds.