Sean Koerner

Projecting this closer to 17.5 with around a 60% chance he stays under 18.5

Walker’s had a strong season, averaging 8.9 tackles per game with a median of 8.5, and as the Packers’ every-down middle linebacker, a prop in this range usually makes sense. But this week’s matchup is an extreme outlier. The Eagles have somehow ranked dead last in tackle opportunities for linebackers..and by a wide margin. Walker’s had a great schedule for LBs so far, but this is by far his toughest spot of the season and the first time he’s faced a team in the bottom seven, let alone the worst. I went back and looked at how other elite full-time MLBs have fared against the Eagles this year, and the results were staggering. Here’s how six full-time tackle machines did: Nick Bolton: 7.9 per game (6 vs PHI) Nate Landman: 9.9 (3) Lavonte David: 7.7 (3) Alex Singleton: 9.1 (6) Bobby Okereke: 9.3 (6 and 8 in two meetings) Blake Cashman: 12 (4) Every single one came in well below their season average, averaging nearly 4.5 fewer tackles than normal against Philly. Now, that doesn’t mean Walker has no path to 9+. Like any prop, trends can break. I’ve built in plenty of regression for the Eagles to trend back toward league average in linebacker tackle opps and still project Walker’s median around 7, with roughly a 71% chance to stay under 8.5. So sure, maybe Quay becomes the first linebacker all season to hit 9+ against Philly..that’s the 29% tail outcome I’ll live with. But given the data, this is easily my favorite tackle prop for Monday Night Football.