Sean Koerner

Projecting him to stay under 6.5 around 58% of the time. Full write up on our site as to how/why I could possibly “fade” a future first ballot Hall of Famer

Last Monday night I loved the Quincy Williams under 6.5 because he was apparently “benched,” with the caveat that the whole thing could’ve been complete bullshit. Worst case scenario was that he played the full game and 6.5 was just a coin flip. Sure enough he played 100 percent of the snaps like always, the phantom “benching” lit a fire under him, and he turned in one of his best games of the season with 8 tackles. Tonight’s prop is similar, but for a different reason. The Cowboys LB room is extremely volatile heading into this game. This will be Logan Wilson’s Cowboys debut after the trade during their BYE, and I expect him to step right into a full-time role. DeMarvion Overshown also appears healthy enough to finally make his season debut. He should return in a limited role, and Shemar James has played well enough that I don’t think he gets outright benched. There’s also a chance Marist Liufau still mixes in for a handful of snaps. All of that matters because Murray has played 100 percent of the snaps this season, so any dip in playing time is massive. If I project him for 100 percent again, I get him around 5.9 tackles, which is right in line with the number. He opened at 6.5 earlier today, but I was tied up writing the CeeDee prop and working on Week 12, and sharp action drove it down before I could grab it. Realistically, he could end up playing 50 percent of snaps for all we know, but I think something like 85 percent is a fair baseline. Fully prepared for the “worst case scenario” that he still plays 100 percent, which would make this more of a coin flip at this price. But this matchup also leans to the under. The Raiders have provided the third-fewest LB tackle opportunities this year (a very common Geno Smith offense theme), and the Cowboys are expected to face around 7 fewer rush attempts than their season average plus about half a completion fewer. That’s just fewer overall tackle chances. Add in newly acquired Quinnen Williams up front, which could clog things enough to keep runs from reaching the second level, and the fact that Ashton Jeanty leads the league in stuff rate, and you get even more paths to Murray coming in under. So once again we have a Monday Night tackle prop with a pretty wide range of outcomes. Worst case is he still plays 100 percent and it’s a coin flip. Best case is he loses even a few snaps in this messy rotation, which would be huge for the under.