Sean Koerner

Warren has numerous factors that cap his ceiling in this specific market tonight. The Steelers are 3-point home dogs, which projects them to trail around a 10% higher rate than their season average, potentially lowering their overall rushing volume. Kenneth Gainwell also tends to see an increase in playing time in trailing game scripts, and using both backs in the passing game could be a more efficient version, or extension, of the run game against a stingy Texans defense. Not only does Gainwell mix in a ton, but we’ve also seen them give Jonnu Smith 1–2 designed rush attempts per game, and in short-yardage situations use Connor Heyward in their version of the tush push. That’s another sneaky reason why I like fading Warren in this specific market, since he’s not going to rack up many cheap rush attempts in short-yardage situations. I’m projecting him closer to 12.4 carries with around a 62% chance to stay under. If and when they move this down to 12.5 (probably shortly after I lock this in), I still think there’s enough downside in this market to feel good about taking under 12.5 at anything better than roughly -120.

Stingley has become one of the premier shutdown corners in the league, which naturally limits his upside when it comes to racking up tackles and explains why his prop is so low here. He’s only been involved in a tackle on 4.4% of pass plays, which ranks 126th out of 127 among qualified corners and mostly highlights just how elite he’s been in coverage. Think of this prop as “rooting for” Stingley to continue being elite in coverage and for Aaron Rodgers to avoid throwing his way for most of the game. He’s also rarely involved in run defense, as he’s only recorded a tackle on 1.9% of run plays faced, which ranks 110th out of 113 qualified CBs. He’s essentially out there to shut down opposing WRs and let his teammates handle the dirty work of tackling ball carriers. He’s also been pretty sensitive to strength of schedule when it comes to how offenses rank in tackle opportunities for CBs, and the Steelers have offered the 2nd lowest rate in the league. Stingley has faced six teams that rank in the top half of the league in tackle opportunities for CBs and has cleared this in four of those games, a 67% over rate. However, in the nine matchups against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league, he’s only cleared it twice, a 22% over rate. The Steelers project as his toughest matchup yet. His previous toughest matchup was against the Ravens in Week 5, who rank last in tackle opportunities for CBs, the only team lower than Pittsburgh, and he finished that game with just one tackle. I’m projecting him closer to 2.2 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 2.5, and I love the fact that we’re getting this at plus money.