Sean Koerner

Bryant is a third-round rookie out of Illinois who got off to a slow start, but emerged as Denver’s No. 2 WR following the team’s Week 12 bye. From Weeks 13–18, he averaged a 71% routes-run rate in the four games he played, missing one with a hamstring injury and another with a concussion. That bump in playing time raises his floor, but he still drew a target on just 15.2% of his routes as a rookie. Denver also tends to spread the ball around, with Courtland Sutton remaining the only consistent piece of the passing attack. This is also a matchup that could push Denver toward a more run-heavy approach. The Bills rank 12th in pass defense DVOA but 31st against the run, making them a clear run-funnel defense. Bryant also lines up in the slot 58% of the time, the highest rate on the team, and Buffalo has allowed just 1.56 yards per route run to slot receivers, the 4th-lowest rate in the league. The Bills are elite at preventing yards after the catch as well, ranking 1st in lowest yards after catch over expected and allowing 0.4 fewer YAC per reception than league average. Bryant has relied on YAC for a meaningful chunk of his production, with 40% of his receiving yards coming after the catch, the 24th-highest rate among 101 qualified WRs. That further caps his upside in this matchup. Denver has averaged the 4th-most plays per game this season, driven by ranking 7th in time of possession. However, Buffalo has dominated TOP all year, leading the league at over 33 minutes per game, which could subtly reduce Denver’s overall play volume. None of this means Bryant can’t catch one or two longer passes and clear this number, but each factor chips away at his ceiling. I’m projecting his median closer to 28.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance he stays under 33.5.

When safety Brandon Jones went down in Week 15, PJ Locke became the one-for-one replacement. After being forced out of Week 18 with a leg injury, Locke is good to go here and should play every snap until Jones potentially returns, as he’s aiming to be back for the Super Bowl if the Broncos make it that far. That said, this number feels too high for Locke. He tends to play deep at a much higher rate, lining up deep on 57% of his snaps compared to just 33% in the box. With the Broncos shifting Talanoa Hufanga into the box at a 6% higher rate when Locke is on the field, it’s clear they want Hufanga absorbing more tackle opportunities while Locke plays deep more often than Brandon Jones did. That role shift should limit Locke’s tackle chances. Locke also mixes in at a very low rate against the run, with just a 6.9% tackle rate on run plays, which matches his 2024 season rate. He’s been similarly limited against the pass, recording a tackle on just 6.5% of opposing dropbacks over the last two seasons combined. This simply isn’t a number I would expect him to clear often. The matchup doesn’t help either. The Bills have allowed the 8th-fewest tackle opportunities to safeties this season. Locke should still mix in on the occasional explosive pass or an Allen or Cook run that breaks into the open field, but relying on those types of plays lowers his floor in this market. The return of LB Dre Greenlaw is also meaningful, as it could further prevent runs from getting into the secondary. I’m projecting Locke closer to 4.7 tackles, with around a 65% chance he stays under 5.5.

I already discussed this on the Fantasy Flex Projections Pod earlier this week, but Barner saw his routes-run rate jump to 81% in the two games after Elijah Arroyo went on IR in Weeks 15–16, then fall all the way down to 61% over the final two weeks of the season. The reason for that drop was Eric Saubert playing slightly more snaps in 1TE formations, typically the more pass-heavy sets. Saubert played 53% of those snaps compared to Barner’s 47%, which resulted in Saubert running a 43% routes-run rate in Week 18. That usage is closer to where Arroyo typically operated and effectively lowered Barner’s chances in the passing game. Because of that, I expect Barner to settle into more of a 60–70% routes-run rate against the 49ers. That’s still enough playing time to do some damage, but there are matchup factors working against him. The 49ers have been solid against tight ends this season, ranking 4th in DVOA against the position. They also blitz at the 6th-lowest rate in the league, which matters because Barner has thrived against the blitz, averaging 2.64 yards per route run, compared to just 1.21 YPRR when teams don’t blitz. It’s also a game where the 49ers offense could struggle with George Kittle out. He’s a massive piece of their passing game and run blocking, so his absence matters. That sets up a scenario where the Seahawks could play with a one- to two-score lead for much of the game and lean on the run. I’m projecting Barner closer to a 27-yard median with around a 60% chance he stays under 32.5. Some books are already down to 31.5, and I still show around a 58% chance he stays under that number as well.

Thomas didn’t become a full-time player until Week 6 and since then he’s averaged 6.25 tackles per game, but he’s only cleared this number in 5 of those 12 games. That average is inflated by two games with 10+ tackles, which highlights how boom-or-bust he can be. A big reason for that volatility is his snap rate, which can swing from roughly 60% to 90%, as Ernest Jones IV remains their primary every-down linebacker. The Seahawks’ secondary has been battered by injuries all season, but this could be just the third game where CB Devon Witherspoon and safeties Julian Love, Coby Bryant, and Nick Emmanwori are all healthy. In the previous two games with that group intact, Thomas averaged a 65% snap rate, which represented a noticeable hit to his playing time. The 49ers do use heavier personnel than most teams, but in Week 18 the Seahawks were in a three-safety look on 100% of the snaps and Thomas still only played 71%. They were without Bryant in that game, so there’s a real chance Thomas settles in around a 70% snap rate here, or potentially even lower. Thomas has been strong in run defense, recording a tackle on 16.4% of rush plays when he’s on the field, and he’s typically used on early downs. However, he often comes off the field on third and fourth downs or in obvious passing situations. I’m projecting Seattle to face roughly one fewer rush attempt in this game, and as 7-point favorites, there’s also a path where Thomas’ playing time dips late if the 49ers are forced into a more pass-heavy comeback script. I have him projected at a 75% snap share, which gives him a 5.0 tackle projection and around a 62% chance to stay under 5.5. As outlined above, there’s also a realistic scenario where his snap rate is closer to 65% with the secondary fully healthy for only the third time all season. That might not sound like much, but a 10% dip in snaps would lower his expected tackles by about 0.7 and push his chances of staying under 5.5 closer to 72%.