Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2518 Posts
Sean Koerner
2518 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.4K
Followers
534.5K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
More from Sean Koerner
Koerner's 2 Favorite ATS Picks in Week 2 ImageNFL

Koerner's 2 Favorite ATS Picks in Week 2

Sean Koerner
Sep 17, 2023 UTC
Koerner's NFL Player Props for Sunday ImageNFL

Koerner's NFL Player Props for Sunday

Sean Koerner
Sep 17, 2023 UTC
Koerner's Favorite Week 2 Total Bet ImageNFL

Koerner's Favorite Week 2 Total Bet

Sean Koerner
Sep 17, 2023 UTC
NFL

2023 NFL Week 2 NFL BETTING PICKS & PLAYER PROPS! | NFL Picks & Predictions | Power Hour

Sean Koerner
Sep 17, 2023 UTC
NFL

Saints vs Panthers & Browns vs Steelers DFS Picks | NFL Fantasy Football Predictions | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Sep 16, 2023 UTC
NFL

Thursday Night Is For WINNERS! 🤑🏈

Sean Koerner
Sep 15, 2023 UTC
NFL

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots DFS Picks | NFL Fantasy Football Predictions | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Sep 15, 2023 UTC
NFL Night Shift | Week 2 | 2023 ImageNFL

NFL Night Shift | Week 2 | 2023

Sean Koerner
Sep 15, 2023 UTC
NFL

Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles Player PROPS & PARLAYS! | NFL TNF Picks | Action Island

Sean Koerner
Sep 14, 2023 UTC
NFL

Bet This THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Prop! 🏈

Sean Koerner
Sep 14, 2023 UTC
NFL

Vikings vs Eagles Best Bets & Preview | Green Dot Daily

Sean Koerner
Sep 14, 2023 UTC
NFL

Start Joe Burrow vs Baltimore? NFL Week 2 DFS Picks & Fantasy Football Predictions | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Sep 14, 2023 UTC

Start Jared Goff In Fantasy in Week 2 🏈🦁

Sean Koerner
Sep 14, 2023 UTC

Is Dallas Goedert due for a big game on TNF?

Sean Koerner
Sep 13, 2023 UTC
NFL

Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles DFS Picks | NFL Thursday Night Football | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Sep 13, 2023 UTC
NFL Fantasy Preview | Week 2 | 2023 ImageNFL

NFL Fantasy Preview | Week 2 | 2023

Sean Koerner
Sep 13, 2023 UTC
NFL Player Projections | Week 2 | 2023 ImageNFL

NFL Player Projections | Week 2 | 2023

Sean Koerner
Sep 13, 2023 UTC
NFL

Avoiding overreaction heading into Week 2 | NFL Player Projections | The Action Network Podcast

Sean Koerner
Sep 13, 2023 UTC
NFL

Bills vs Jets Preview | NFL Week 1 Recap | Green Dot Daily!

Sean Koerner
Sep 11, 2023 UTC
Koerner's 3 NFL Week 1 Player Props ImageNFL

Koerner's 3 NFL Week 1 Player Props

Sean Koerner
Sep 10, 2023 UTC
NFL

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills DFS Picks | NFL Monday Night Football Predictions | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Sep 10, 2023 UTC
...
45
...

Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
169
31
Barner has only cleared this in 1 of 5 games, but I think this is a pretty sneaky buy-low spot. Denver is usually a man-heavy defense, but with Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss out last week they shifted much more toward zone and used two-high/MOFO at a 66% rate, second-highest in the league. Surtain is already out, Moss is questionable and Talanoa Hufanga is out too, so I’m expecting a fairly similar approach. That matters because Barner’s target rate is 6% higher against two-high/MOFO. And his usage with Sam Darnold has been much better than the early-season numbers suggest. With Drew Lock handling most of Weeks 1-2, Barner had just a 9% target rate. In Weeks 3-5 with Darnold, that’s jumped to 22%, and against two-high/MOFO specifically he’s been at 24%, only 2% behind JSN. I’d also expect Denver to devote plenty of attention to JSN, which could leave Barner with even more room underneath. Alex Singleton has been targeted 27 times in coverage, most among LBs, so there’s a pretty obvious matchup path too. Barner is also coming off a season-high 81% routes run rate and has caught just 60% of his targets this year after typically being closer to 76%, so there’s some positive catch-rate regression incoming too. After adjusting for all of that, I have his median closer to 28 yards with around a 59% chance to clear 23.5. And this is one where I think the projection may still be a little too conservative because I was pretty careful with each individual adjustment. The path to upside is better than the final 28 yard median projection probably makes it look.
174
27
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
26
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
27
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
106
24
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
26
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
23
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
65
22
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
20
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days12-13-048%
1.66u
Last 30 Days41-49-046%
0.58u
All Time2358-1980-3954%
244.48u
Top Leagues
NFL1275-1031-2055%
139.72u
MLB391-350-752%
45.08u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA211-177-554%
25.03u
NCAAF43-30-257%
6.60u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
Golf9-21-030%
-0.42u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.