Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2496 Posts
Sean Koerner
2496 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.3K
Followers
508.7K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
For a few years now, I’ve been trying to remind people that Purdy has more rushing upside than I think the market gives him credit for. He has incredible burst. His 1.55-second 10-yard split is elite and 90th+ percentile among QBs. He tends to play within structure and usually uses that burst to escape pressure and buy time rather than immediately take off and run. It’s a huge reason why his 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate was the lowest among all qualified QBs last season. He’s one of, if not the toughest QB in the league to sack. However, Purdy has mentioned that he wants to use his legs a bit more this season to keep the chains moving, so I think this is a sneaky Week 1 market to invest in. There are also several factors that could elevate his scramble rate tonight. The Rams should be able to generate even more pressure with Myles Garrett now on the team, which could force Purdy out of the pocket at a higher rate. More pressure isn’t necessarily a bad thing for this prop given how good Purdy is at avoiding sacks and extending plays. The 49ers also have a QB sneak play that tends to pick up 2-3 yards at a time. They were a bit more cautious using it with Purdy last season due to his toe injury, but we could see 1-2 of those tonight. Those are valuable hidden yards when we only need 18. There are some game-script factors working in our favor as well. As 3.5-point underdogs, there’s a lower chance Purdy is taking kneels at the end of the game for negative yardage. If the 49ers are playing from behind, that should also increase his dropback volume and create more potential scramble opportunities. I have Purdy closer to a 58% chance to clear 17.5 rushing yards, but this is one of those Week 1 props where I think he may have even more upside than I’m accounting for in my raw projections given his stated intention to run more. Brock Purdy Over 17.5 Rushing Yards is my prop of the game.
141
16
It might sound crazy to lay -152 fading the best defender on the planet, and maybe it is crazy. But I’m showing quite a bit of value here, and once I dug into the matchup it made a lot of sense. As I mentioned in my Brock Purdy rushing prop earlier, he was the toughest QB to sack when pressured last season, with just a 9.2% pressure-to-sack rate. His quick burst allows him to escape pressure and avoid sacks, which is a big reason the 49ers tend to provide opposing EDGE rushers with fewer tackles than your average offense. Garrett cleared 3.5 tackles + assists in 53% of his games last season, and that was during a year in which he had 23(!) sacks. The split that really stood out: in the six games where Garrett recorded 1.5+ sacks, he cleared this number every time. But in games where he had one sack or fewer, he cleared 3.5 tackles + assists just 27% of the time. That makes sense. A lot of Garrett’s tackle upside comes from sacks, and I think he’s much more likely to “only” get one sack or fewer tonight against Purdy. There’s also a chance the Rams limit Garrett’s snaps somewhat after he missed practice time over the last couple of weeks with a swollen knee. I have Garrett closer to -200 to stay Under 3.5 tackles + assists, so even at -152 I’m showing solid value. This also correlates nicely with my Purdy Over rushing yards prop. If Purdy is escaping Garrett and turning pressure into scramble yards instead of sacks/tackles, both bets can benefit from the same outcome. For sites like PrizePicks where you have to play 2+ props, you could pair Purdy Over 18.5 rushing yards with Garrett Under 0.75 sacks. I like that less than Garrett Under 3.5 tackles + assists, but they aren’t offering the tackle under.
46
9
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
54
25
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
26
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
104
24
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
26
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
23
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
64
22
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
20
Past Performance
Yesterday1-1-050%
0.00u
Last 7 Days2-2-050%
-0.05u
Last 30 Days7-8-047%
-0.81u
All Time2309-1923-3954%
244.31u
Top Leagues
NFL1230-977-2055%
139.99u
MLB391-349-752%
45.58u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA211-176-554%
25.57u
NCAAF39-29-256%
5.13u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
Golf9-21-030%
-0.42u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.