Sean Koerner

As I mentioned in my game preview, ever since their Week 11 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks have seen their pass rate over expected jump by around ~10%, so there hasn’t been as much rushing volume to go around for both Kenneth Walker III and Charbonnet. Plus, while they are slight 1.5-point home favorites, this still sets up as a game where they are expected to play with the lead at a 14% lower rate than their season average. The Seahawks have played with a lead 56% of the time this season, which ranks 4th highest in the league, but historically a 1.5-point favorite only plays with the lead about 42% of the time. That gap is why I’m projecting them to play with the lead less often tonight, which could mean fewer rushing attempts overall. They also tend to mix in rush attempts for JSN, AJ Barner on the tush push, and Rashid Shaheed, all of which can chip away at Charbonnet’s upside in this market. Charbonnet also tends to see more usage on passing downs and in short-yardage situations, which can limit his ceiling when it comes to rushing yards. This is also a tougher matchup against a Rams defense that ranks 4th in rush DVOA. Charbonnet has been pretty sensitive to matchup quality, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry in 3 games against top 5 rush DVOA defenses, compared to 4.9 yards per carry in 5 games against bottom 10 units. On top of that, LT Charles Cross has been ruled out, which is a meaningful blow to the offensive line and could hurt him even more. The weather report calls for potential rain and high winds, especially in the 1st half, but I don’t think it gives Charbonnet any sort of specific boost. High winds can sometimes allow defenses to play closer to the line of scrimmage or make downfield passing easier depending on wind direction, so I’m mostly treating weather as neutral here. He clears this prop if the Seahawks get out to an early or big lead and lean heavily on the run game, or if he gets one of those tilting 3rd-and-20 draw plays that somehow picks up a cheap 10+ yards anyway. But I’m expecting a closer game where the Rams lean on the run, control time of possession more than usual, and limit Seattle’s overall play volume. Tonight’s prop market is super sharp, but the underlying factors here led me to this as my favorite prop for the game. I’m projecting Charbonnet closer to 30 rushing yards, with around a 59% chance to stay under 34.5.

It’s rare to see a tackle prop this low being offered on DK, but Durant certainly warrants it, as he’s stayed under this in 9 of 14 games this season (64%). The Rams rotate their CBs, so he typically only plays around 70–75% of the snaps. Durant is generally good in coverage and has allowed roughly a 55% catch rate over the last 3 seasons when he’s the nearest defender, which limits his tackle upside as a corner. He’s also rarely involved in run defense. At 5’11”, 175 lbs, he’s been credited with just 3 run tackles all season. Seattle is slightly below league average in terms of providing tackle opportunities for CBs, and as I mentioned a few weeks ago, JSN tends to get brought down by safeties and linebackers at a higher rate than people expect, so he isn’t a true CB tackle funnel. On top of that, the Rams are projected to face around ~3 fewer completions in this game, which directly hurts Durant’s tackle projection. I’m projecting him closer to 2.3 tackles. Tonight’s market across the board is extremely sharp, but I still show around a 59% chance he stays under 2.5.