NFL Picks, Preseason Odds: Expert Previews Buccaneers vs Jets, Chiefs vs Cardinals, More (Aug. 19)
Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Baker Mayfield.
It’s the preseason, which means nothing is a given and all we can do is speculate roughly when QBs will be in the game.
I try to estimate when certain QBs/units will be in the game to plan my pre/in-game betting strategy. Everything is subject to change and I update these charts as we get more information.
Bills vs. Steelers
Josh Allen and the rest of the Bills starters could play the entire first quarter. The Steelers could do the same, but the Bills will clearly have the edge in the opening stanza.
The second and third quarters are when the Steelers should have the edge. Then, it’ll be the Bills who have the edge in the fourth considering Tanner Morgan might be one of the worst quarterbacks getting snaps today.
I’m surprised to see the Bills as slight dogs for the opening quarter, so I'm going to lock it in.
Pick: Bills 1Q -108 (DraftKings)
Buccaneers vs. Jets
The Jets will have a slight edge in the first half, but the Bucs should have the advantage in the second half with Baker Mayfield/John Wolford vs. Tim Boyle.
The Buccaneers are evaluating their Week 1 starting QB, No. 3 WR and backup RB, so they will be playing fringe Week 1 starters for most of this game.
I'm taking the Bucs +3.5 and I might also double down on them at halftime if they are +0.5 or better.
Pick: Bucs +3.5 -108 (DraftKings)
Patriots vs. Packers
Both teams could play their starters for most of the first quarter. After that, we will likely see Baily Zappe vs. Sean Clifford for the next two quarters.
Clifford looked great in his debut last week, but I would still consider the matchup fairly even for the first half.
The Packers should be slight favorites, but -3.5 for the 1H seems too steep. I’m going to lock in the Pats as we're getting the key number of +3.5.
Pick: Pats 1H +3 (-110; bet365).
Titans vs. Vikings
The first half should be fairly even with Malik Willis vs. Nick Mullens.
However, there could be a second-half betting opportunity since it’ll be Willis (possibly Levis, if healthy) vs. Jaren Hall. I pegged Hall as one of the worst QBs in preseason this year — he struggled mighty last week, going 6-for-14 for 37 passing yds (2.6 YPA). While he didn’t throw an interception, he had a turnover worthy play.
I’ll be looking to potentially back the Titans in the 2nd half.
Chiefs vs. Cardinals
Andy Reid says he wants to play his starters for the first half, but will remove players from the game when needed. I’m guessing Patrick Mahomes and most of the starters play the entire first quarter against Colt McCoy.
The huge edge the Chiefs will have to start the game is why the spread –and the first half — is -7.5.
I’m going to specifically target the Chiefs -1.5 in the first quarter. It’ll be more of an even matchup in the second half, so I’ll be looking to potentially back the Cardinals then if I think they are getting too many points.
Pick: Chiefs 1Q -1.5 (-120; DraftKings)
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