Sean Koerner

This is a brutal matchup and another spot where the Cardinals should be in a trailing, pass-heavy game script. They have a ton of injuries on defense that should allow the Texans to move the ball and put up points. Plus, they’ll be without their top offensive lineman, LT Paris Johnson, who is out with a knee injury, along with RG Evan Brown. Emari Demercado, who remains questionable, may also return. When he was healthy a few weeks ago, he really ate into Knight’s early-down work and made it more of a 3-way committee. That would only lower Knight’s floor even more in this market. I’m projecting this closer to 31.5 with around a 60% chance he stays under 36.5.

Heading into last week’s game I was mentioning in our Discord NFL general discussion channel that the Ravens should give Mitchell a bit more work on the ground (while obviously continuing to feed Derrick Henry). Sure enough, he ripped off 6 carries for 76 yards against the Steelers. The crazy part? He was forced out of the game with a knee injury with 9+ minutes left in the 3rd quarter, so he effectively only played a half of football. Mitchell has now averaged a ridiculous 7.0 yards per rush in his 3-year career and is clearly one of the better backups in the league. He just doesn’t get much work because he plays behind a generational talent and iron man in Derrick Henry. He isn’t even listed on the injury report this week, which means the knee injury wasn’t serious, and this is a great matchup for him specifically. Mitchell runs outside the tackles at a 74% rate, which is one of the highest rates in the league. The Bengals run defense has allowed +1.92 yards over expected per carry on outside runs, the 2nd-highest rate in the league. One major area where the Bengals struggle is allowing 1.83 yards before contact, the 4th-highest mark in the league. That is a lethal combo versus Derrick Henry, but it’s especially lethal with Keaton Mitchell, who averages a ridiculous 11.3 yards per carry when given 2+ yards before contact, which ranks 3rd highest in the league. I’m only projecting Mitchell for around 4-5 rush attempts here, but he should be able to do enough damage in that small sample against this defense, with upside for more. I’m going to take his alt over 40+ as well, since I have him around a median of 23.5 with about a 62% chance to clear 16.5 (-114 on FanDuel). I also have him closer to +300 to clear 40+, so I’ll sprinkle 40+ at +567 on DK.

Caleb has cleared this in 10 of 13 games so it seems way too low on the surface, but this is a spot where multiple factors lead me to the under. First, this is a game I’m expecting the Bears to run a bit more as 7.5-point favorites, even though it’s a tougher matchup against a Browns defense that ranks 2nd in DVOA against the run. When Caleb does drop back, it’s also a tougher matchup through the air since Cleveland ranks 7th in DVOA against the pass. One of their strengths is generating pressure at the 5th highest rate, which not only increases the chances Caleb scrambles (he’s scrambled on 19% of pressured dropbacks) but also kills his efficiency when he does throw. He’s at just 4.13 Y/A when pressured, which ranks 43rd out of 44 qualified QBs. Another recent trend is Caleb throwing downfield much less, with his average air yards dropping. That may help his completion rate a bit but lowers his upside in this market. Plus, it’s supposed to be freezing temps for the game, and for someone who is already erratic as a thrower, that could make things even tougher for his receivers to haul in passes. So this sets up as a run-heavy game plan where Caleb could use his legs more, which lowers his passing upside. They should also be able to play with a lead at a higher rate and keep a more conservative approach without pushing downfield as much. I’m projecting him closer to 179.5 pass yds with around a 58% chance to stay under, and feel like a lot of underlying factors will keep him limited in this market this week.

Bowers is clearly a generational talent at TE and could be on his way to a HOF career, but the market is well aware of that by now, so it’s not unreasonable to look to his unders when it makes sense, especially since he’s operated at such an elite usage rate at times in his young career for various reasons. I think there are a few reasons why I’m showing value on his under here. First, the Raiders are 12.5-point road dogs, so they should be in a trailing, pass-heavy script, but they’ve been trailing and playing from behind at a high rate all season. I’m projecting them to trail at around their average rate here. They may also try to be a bit more run heavy against a more run-funnel Eagles defense that will be without Jalen Carter again. Plus, the Raiders are a luck-rankings play this week, which makes me think this game ends up being closer than the market expects. Bowers could also have added target competition with rookie Jack Bech having a bigger role (as I expected last week when I was on his over 21.5). Bech tends to have a similar route tree to Bowers, which could steal a few targets going forward. Backup TE Michael Mayer is also back this week, which could eat into Bowers’ usage slightly. And with Kenny Pickett making his first start for the Raiders, it’s worth noting he tends to target outside WRs at a higher rate. We saw a bit of that last week with only 2 of his 11 attempts going to Bowers, while he targeted Bech 4 times. He might simply have more chemistry with Bech after practicing with the 2nd unit for most of the season. Since Chip Kelly was fired, Bowers has also seen his slot rate drop and his target rate take a noticeable hit. This is a brutal matchup as well. The Eagles rank 1st in DVOA against TEs, and they can use CB Quinyon Mitchell to shadow him at times, or he could face Cooper DeJean in the slot. It’s going to be a tough spot for Bowers. While he obviously has the talent to overcome it, the underlying factors are enough for me to project him closer to 48.5 with around a 59% chance to stay under 54.5.

Ever since HC Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties in Week 11, the Lions have been much more pass heavy and leaning on Jahmyr Gibbs even more, at the expense of David Montgomery. That could get magnified here, as the Lions are expected to trail at a +12% higher rate than their season average in a brutal road game against the Rams. Not only would that likely lead to fewer rush attempts overall, it could also lead to Monty seeing fewer snaps. There is certainly a path where the Lions get off to an early lead, are able to lean on the run, and we see Monty mixing in more early, especially in short-yardage situations, which would expose this bet. However, I’m still projecting the most likely outcomes to help the under and have Monty closer to 7.1 rush attempts with around a 59% chance to stay under 7.5.

Was going to get to this one soon but @nick_giffen beat me to it

Parsons is obviously one of the premier edge rushers in the league, but this isn’t a market or number he tends to clear, as he’s only had 4+ tackles in 3 of 13 games this season. It’s a bit unfair to include the full season since he was eased in to start the year and wasn’t in his current full-time role of ~90% of the snaps until Week 6. Even then, he’s only cleared this in 3 of 9 games. All 3 times came in games where he was able to rack up multiple sacks. There was even a game where he had 2 sacks and only finished with 2 tackles total (both from the sacks). Now he faces the Broncos, which is a brutal matchup for EDGE rushers, as Denver has allowed the 2nd fewest tackle opps to the position. Parsons has had a very easy schedule in terms of EDGE tackle opportunities, so this will be by far the toughest matchup he’s had all season. Bo Nix has also been one of the toughest QBs to sack. He plays behind an elite OL and has only been under pressure on 27% of dropbacks, the 3rd lowest rate. Even when pressured, he’s tough to take down with an 11% pressure-to-sack rate, the 2nd lowest in the league. Nix does drops back at a very high rate, which will give Parsons plenty of chances to get to him, but it also means fewer rush attempts faced than the Packers typically see. That lowers the odds Parsons picks up cheap run tackles and likely puts him in a spot where he’d need multiple sacks to clear this number. That’s a tougher task in this matchup. I’m projecting Parsons closer to 3.1 tackles with around a 61% chance to stay under 3.5.

His last non-kneel down rush was on September 9th in the year 2020 and kneel downs were his only source of rush attempts over his final 14 games that season. His realistic path to hitting this would be a kneel down to end the half which I have around a 15% chance. Can also just take his under 0.5 rush yards at -235