Sean Koerner

Similar to AJ Barner’s under (which finished with 0 yards), I talked about this angle on the Fantasy Flex Projections Pod earlier this week. With Stefon Diggs and Demario Douglas seeing an uptick in routes in the opening round of the playoffs, this mainly applies to Diggs, who I expected to see his playing time ramp up in the postseason. That increase can chip away at Boutte’s already modest target rate, which sits at just 12.3% on the season. Boutte operates as the primary downfield threat, so when he does get a target it’s usually a lower-percentage deep shot that either goes for a chunk gain or ends up in the end zone if he hauls it in. That’s what makes his 72% catch rate so wild, as it’s +21.2% above expected according to NextGenStats. A lot of that can be attributed to having the most accurate QB in the league in Drake Maye, so it’s fair to assume he’ll continue to outperform expectations to some extent. Still, I’m expecting some regression here, especially against a Houston secondary that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA and features two of the best corners in the league in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. There’s also the potential for significant snow in this game, which would make completing deep balls more difficult. Even without extreme weather, the Patriots could opt for a more conservative approach, leaning on the run game, Drake Maye’s legs, or shorter checkdowns rather than testing this secondary deep with Boutte. I’m projecting Boutte closer to 2.2 receptions with around a 63% chance to stay under 2.5. I’m not interested in fading his yardage, as I have his median around 33.5, which is right in line with the market. This is the angle I want, and I like that FanDuel is still offering the under at a reasonable price, with some books already pushing this into the -150 range.

I can’t remember the last time I was projecting an interior defensive lineman for around 5 tackles, but Togiai is popping in my tackle model. It makes sense, as he’s become one of the top run stoppers in the league this season. He led the league in stop rate, managing to stop 14.1% of run plays when he’s on the field, and he’s mixed in on a run tackle on a ridiculous 25.6% of run plays when he’s in the game. Today he faces a Patriots team that has provided the 3rd most tackle opportunities for DTs, and with snow expected (possibly heavy at times), we could see an uptick in run plays, especially ones that get stuffed. The Patriots rank inside the top 10 in stuff rate, and Togiai should be matched up for most of the game against LG Jared Wilson, who ranks 72nd out of 79 guards in PFF run-blocking grade. All of this sets up Togiai for a 5.1 tackle projection in my model, so I’m playing his Over 3.5 at -163 (projected closer to -250), along with 5+ at +129 (projected closer to -130) and 6+ at +263 (projected closer to +165).

🪜

🪜

It’s going to be freezing cold, with some wind that only amplifies the cold, and potentially some snow. I’m expecting both teams to be a bit more run heavy and slower paced, which could lower the overall play volume of the game, a key factor for this market specifically. Caleb is already below average in terms of accuracy and completion rate, and that tends to take a hit in these conditions, especially since it’s also tougher for pass catchers to hang on to throws, particularly with how hard he throws the ball. We should also see him continue to use his legs to scramble when needed, which further lowers his ceiling in this specific market. He’s benefited from several ultra pass-heavy comeback game scripts at times this year to eventually clear this number, but even in those spots, Ben Johnson has remained patient and continued to mix in the run at a fairly normal rate before fully airing it out. That approach also caps his upside in this market. I’m projecting him closer to 18.0 completions, with around a 63% chance he stays under 19.5. Quite a few books have this at 18.5 (juiced to the over), and I still have him at roughly a 56% chance to stay under that number, with about a 9% chance he lands exactly on 18, a good reminder of how critical each completion is in these markets.

Byard has the 2nd most solo run tackles for the Bears and an average depth of tackle just over 10 yards. I’m expecting the Rams to be a bit more run heavy here and efficient with that approach, as Kyren Williams ranks 1st among qualified RBs in success rate and backup Blake Corum ranks 3rd. They should be able to break into the second level and the open field more often, which brings Byard’s tackle chances into play, especially with LB T.J. Edwards out. Byard has seen his tackle rate on run plays jump by roughly 3% when Edwards isn’t on the field. He should also be involved on some Puka Nacua and Davante Adams receptions, along with other pass-game tackles throughout the game. All of this helps explain why the Rams have provided the 2nd most tackle opportunities to safeties on the season. Byard has had a tougher-than-average schedule for a safety, and this will only be the third game he’s faced a team in the top half of the league in tackle opportunities for safeties, making this his second-best matchup to date. This is a great spot for Byard, and I’m projecting him roughly a full tackle higher than the market at 6.8, with around a 65% chance to clear 5.5.