Sean Koerner

Proj closer to 32

Proj closer to 32.5

Proj closer to 4.7

Proj closer to 7.6

The Ravens’ 1st-round pick has had a solid season and was asked to step up as a full-time starter as a rookie. However, the trade for safety Alohi Gilman from the Chargers took some of the pressure off him. While the Ravens used 3 safeties at a very high rate for most of the season, we’ve seen them dial that back in 2 of their last 3 games, and it’s come at the expense of Starks’ playing time. He saw his snap rate dip below 80% for the first two times all season, playing 71% of the snaps in Week 14 against the Steelers and 77% last week against the Patriots. With the Packers expected to have a run-heavy game plan tonight with Malik Willis under center, I expect them to match up with heavier personnel at a higher rate, which could mean Starks’ playing time dips again this week. We could also see Starks playing deep safety at a higher rate, which would pull him out of tackle opportunities, especially since we won’t see Willis attempting nearly as many deep passes as Jordan Love. In this spot, Starks may need to be perfectly positioned on a handful of explosive runs or passes to sneak over this number. I have him projected closer to 3.9 tackles with around a 63% chance to stay under 4.5, and I think his floor is much lower in this spot.

The Packers clinched a playoff spot after the Lions lost to the Vikings on Christmas. They are highly likely headed for a Wild Card spot, with only some very unlikely scenarios still alive where they could win the NFC North if they win out and the Bears lose to either the 49ers or Lions. With Jordan Love ruled out and several other players dealing with injuries, the Packers’ optimal plan here would likely be to prioritize getting healthy for the playoffs. Josh Jacobs has been removed from the injury report after dealing with knee and ankle injuries. While I do expect him to operate as the lead back in what could be a very run-heavy game plan with Malik Willis under center, he’s also a player I could see them giving a slightly lighter workload as they ramp him up for the postseason. I could be dead wrong and we see Jacobs rush 30+ times tonight, but I think the Packers would ideally cap him closer to 15 carries and lean a bit more on Emmanuel Wilson, who has actually been slightly more efficient than Jacobs this season and arguably deserves more work. The Ravens profile more as a pass-funnel defense and rank 9th in rush DVOA, making this a tougher matchup overall. It’s also a spot where Baltimore should be able to stack the box at a higher rate, given the expectation of a run-heavy game plan. The Ravens already use stacked boxes at the 4th-highest rate in the league, and I expect that rate to climb even higher tonight. Jacobs has faced a stacked box on just 17% of his runs this season, the 8th-lowest rate among 48 qualified RBs, and his efficiency drops sharply in those situations. He’s averaged just 2.4 yards per carry against stacked boxes, with a -0.8 RYOE per attempt that ranks 41st out of 48 backs. There are also offensive line concerns, with RT Zach Tom, C Sean Rhyan, and LG Aaron Banks all listed as questionable. Tom’s absence in particular would be massive, but even one or two of those linemen being out would be a blow for Jacobs’ efficiency. That scenario could also push the Packers to further limit his workload, especially in a game where there isn’t much to gain. Green Bay also mixes in carries for WRs like Jayden Reed and Savion Williams, which can quietly chip away at Jacobs’ volume. I’m projecting Jacobs closer to 46 rushing yards, with around a 59% chance to stay under 51.5. This one comes with more guesswork and a wider range of outcomes than usual, given all the moving pieces and the fact that both teams are starting backup quarterbacks.