Sean Koerner

Sinnott is a TE I was higher on entering last year’s draft, and the Commanders scooped him up in the 2nd round, which was a rough landing spot for him to produce as a rookie because they already had legendary TE Zach Ertz. Ertz had played ahead of budding young TEs like Dallas Goedert and Trey McBride, who I was also high on and patiently awaited their chance to step up down the road. Sure enough, Ertz had been healthy and started the first 30 games of Sinnott’s career. However, Ertz tore his ACL in Week 14 and is out for the season, so last week was the first time we’ve seen how the Commanders would handle their TE rotation without him. I figured John Bates would operate as the lead TE, which he did with a 50% routes run rate, while Sinnott wasn’t too far behind at 38%. FB/TE hybrid Colson Yankoff had a 23% routes run rate, but he’s already been ruled out, which I think opens things up for Sinnott to see a bit more playing time today. Sinnott only ran 10 routes last week because Marcus Mariota only dropped back to pass 26 times in their 29–21 win over the Giants. In what should be a more pass-heavy game script, I have Mariota dropping back around 10 more times today, which should allow Sinnott a few more chances to catch 1–2 passes. I went back and watched all 10 of his routes closely and liked what I saw. Two of the routes ended in Mariota scrambles, so it’s unlikely Mariota continues scrambling on 20% of Sinnott’s routes going forward, which could open up additional target chances. On a couple of routes, Sinnott was a bit hesitant and clearly made some mistakes that should get ironed out as he gets more regular-season reps. However, there were also a few plays where he was wide open and Mariota simply didn’t see him. They must have noticed this on the sideline because late in the 4th quarter, Mariota finally hooked up with Sinnott for a wide-open 36-yard catch and run. I think they had chances for 1–2 similar plays earlier in the game. There was also a pass to the sideline that doesn’t get credited as a target, but Mariota was clearly looking Sinnott’s way when he threw it. So I think now is the perfect time to invest in the 2nd-year player the market is likely overlooking. It’s obviously a brutal matchup against the Eagles. If you recall, I faded Brock Bowers against them last week for that very reason, but Bowers was getting the Mitchell/DeJean treatment as the Raiders’ primary target. Sinnott shouldn’t get that same type of attention, and I think he could be higher up Mariota’s target pecking order today based on what I saw last week. I’m projecting him closer to 15.5 rec yards, with around a 59% chance to clear 11.5. This isn’t a “mathy” data play, since we’ve only seen Sinnott play one game without Ertz and is much more of a “this is the time to invest in a player I was high on who now finally has a chance to produce” that the market could be overlooking type of play.

Luvu is a player I fade in this market from time to time because, while he’s an exciting player, part of that comes from him lining up as an edge rusher at one of the highest rates for a LB. Since Dorance Armstrong suffered his season-ending injury in Week 7, Luvu has lined up on the edge on just under 50% of his snaps. That drastic shift in usage saw him average 5.7 tackles per game from Weeks 1–7, but that number has dropped to just 4.3 tackles per game from Weeks 8–15. He’s only cleared this number in 1 of 7 games (14%) since then. Lining up on the edge makes it much tougher for a LB to pick up consistent tackle opportunities. This is a plus matchup for edge rushers, which he may be 50% of the time, but it’s the most brutal matchup for traditional LBs, as the Eagles have provided opposing LBs with the lowest rate of tackle opportunities. That makes this a tough spot for Luvu to clear this number. I do think his tackle rate could regress up slightly from the 4.3 rate we’ve seen since the usage shift, but either way this number still feels a bit too high. I’m projecting him closer to 5.0 tackles with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5.

A lot of the same reasons as last week, but he decided to go bananas in the 1st half throwing to generational talent Luther Burden III. Burden won’t be able to bail him out this week (since he’s OUT) so going to run it back here. Projecting him closer to 194.5 with around a 60% chance to stay under 207.5

CJ racked up 10 tackles against this team when they met a couple of weeks ago, as Jordan Love picked on him in coverage. Due to the Bears dealing with so many injuries at LB, they had to shift CJ’s usage around at times, and against the Packers he lined up in the box a season-high 29 times. Last week, he shifted back to a season-high 41 snaps in the slot, and the slot is the alignment where he’s seeing a much lower tackle rate (7.9% of snaps). I think he stays heavily in that role today, as the Bears will likely be getting LB Tremaine Edmunds back, which should take a ton of pressure off CJ needing to be involved in run defense. In fact, I’m projecting CJ around a 95% snap rate, but with the defense back to full health, I do wonder if there are some packages where he might not be on the field today. Either way, I’m still projecting him at 95%, with at least some chance that he ends up playing fewer snaps than that. With Edmunds and Edwards both healthy for the first time since Week 11, I’m expecting that to chip away at CJ’s tackle rate. That doesn’t mean he can’t clear this again and rack up 10+ tackles. He’s been very boom/bust, clearing this in just 2 of 6 games (33%) where he’s been a full-time player for the Bears, and in both of those games he sailed way over with 9 and 10 tackles. But with Edmunds back, I’m projecting him closer to 5.0 today with around a 60% chance to stay under 5.5. There are a lot of moving parts here, which makes this a bit tricky to project, but with only two more full weeks of regular-season football before the Week 18 crapshoot, I’m more willing to roll the dice on this one despite the wider range of outcomes.