More from Sean Koerner
Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
A.Thompson u6.5 Rebs-122
DEN
99
96
HOU
0.61u
4th 3:58
Adams in. Project closer to 60% to stay under 6.5. Amen’s rebound rate is down a bit this season, likely due to KD and with Adams getting more minutes. He’s seen a huge drop off in terms of FT rebound rate which dings him close to 0.5 rebounds in this spot specifically. Nuggets are a good shooting team and the Rockets are expected to get around 5 fewer rebounds tonight (as a team) compared to their season rate
95
B.Adebayo u3.5 Ast-123
MIA
143
107
CHI
0.62u
FINAL 11/22
Bam’s passing rate is way down through 9 games this season and he’s shooting at a higher rate, which tend to be the more predictive metrics when it comes to assist rate. However, his teammates are making their shots at a 15% higher rate on his potential assists. He’s only averaging 3.3 assists per game where he’s played 30+ minutes, but I think he’s actually due for some slight regression and have him projected closer to 3.2 with around a 60% chance to stay under 3.5. I’m even factoring in his playing time being back to normal after returning last game and also baking in a lot of last season’s pass-rate data still.
127
Pending
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2-2-0 | 50% | 0.33u |
| Last 7 Days | 11-10-0 | 52% | 0.29u |
| Last 30 Days | 48-32-0 | 60% | 8.45u |
| All Time | 1970-1584-31 | 55% | 231.86u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1144-903-19 | 55% | 136.76u |
| MLB | 298-247-4 | 54% | 42.72u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-73-0 | 52% | -2.16u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point