Sean Koerner

Wiggins has stayed under this number in 8 of 16 games this season, making 4.5 his median. He’s been targeted 108 times, which is the 2nd most in the league, so he typically draws a ton of action his way. However, this week against a Steelers team that will be without DK Metcalf, their WR room is very thin, and he could be lined up across from Adam Thielen and Marquez Valdez-Scantling for most of the game. He had 6 tackles when these teams met a few weeks ago, but 3 of those came on DK Metcalf catches with Wiggins in coverage. With DK out, his tackle upside feels meaningfully lower here. This is also a game where I’m projecting the Ravens to face ~2.5 fewer completed passes and ~2 fewer rush attempts than their season average. On top of that, the Steelers have provided the 2nd fewest tackle opportunities to opposing CBs on the season, something that should be even more pronounced without DK. I have Wiggins mixing in on around ~1 run tackle and ~3 tackles in coverage. This feels like a spot where he’s much more likely to land near his floor (obviously he could still get 5+), but I’m projecting around a 62% chance he stays under 4.5