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Rams vs Raiders Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Thursday’s Over/Under

Rams vs Raiders Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Thursday’s Over/Under article feature image
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Sam Morris/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Jacobs (No. 28) and Derek Carr.

Rams vs Raiders Odds

Thursday, December 8
8:15 p.m. ET
Amazon Prime Video
Rams Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-105
41.5
+230
Raiders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-115
41.5
-300
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

As we find a Raiders vs Rams pick for Thursday Night Football, we have two teams trending in different directions.

Las Vegas has won three straight games and finally catching some breaks after a rough start to the season, while Los Angeles is without most of its noteworthy players and has lost six in a row.

Let’s break down the matchup and make our NFL pick, which is on the Raiders vs Rams total.

Rams vs Raiders Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Raiders and Rams match up statistically:

Rams vs Raiders DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 13 16
Pass DVOA 17 27
Rush DVOA 5 5
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 27 31
Pass DVOA 27 30
Rush DVOA 24 21

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When the Rams Have the Ball

With the Rams season circling down the drain, they decided to claim Baker Mayfield off of waivers. There is a chance he could be active for this game, but he’s unlikely to see any meaningful snaps.

Therefore, we should see John Wolford get another start if he’s able to play through a neck injury. Without Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson at his disposal, it’s unlikely the Rams offense will be able to take advantage of the Raiders’ 30th-ranked pass defense in DVOA.

Los Angeles also seems content with feeding Cam Akers as a workhorse back, who has been the second-least-efficient running back in the NFL, according to NextGenStats’ rush yards over expected metric (-0.64).


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When the Raiders Have the Ball

The Raiders are enjoying a three-game win streak and their offense has been a huge reason why. Over the last three weeks, the Raiders lead the league in yards per play (7.0) and their offensive approach has been pretty straightforward since it runs through their two best players in Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams.

However, the Rams defense might be able to slow down Josh Jacobs as it ranks first in EPA/rush on the season. Jacobs has been playing through a quad and calf injury, so playing on a short week could limit him more than usual.

The Rams will be without Aaron Donald again this week, but the defense played fairly well without him last week as six players were able to generate two or more pressures against a very good pass-blocking unit in the Seahawks. Therefore, there is some hope this unit should be able to play well enough again without Donald for at least one more game.

Betting Picks

My projection for this game is closer to 42.5, so I was very surprised to see the total set so high at 44.5 as of Wednesday at 6 p.m. ET, when 79% of the action and 74% of the money was on the over.

Naturally, right as I finished writing, the total moved to 43.5, which I’m still OK with.

The most likely outcome of this game is the Raiders win fairly easily. When they do have a lead, it will set up nicely for the under because if they have a run-heavy game script, it will play right into the strength of the Rams defense, their run defense, which ranks first in EPA/rush. Plus, Jacobs may finally have his various injuries also slow him down a bit on the short week.

Meanwhile, the Rams offense has been decimated by injuries and is currently one of the worst in the league. Los Angeles is unlikely to take advantage of a plus matchup against the Raiders defense that ranks 31st in DVOA.

Finally, both of these teams also prefer to play at a slower pace, with the Raiders ranking 23rd in situation-neutral pace and Rams coming in at 28th.

I was able to bet 44.5, but I’d still play 43.5. I wouldn’t go any lower because 43 is a key number for totals.

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